SMM Morning Review - 2011/8/10 Aluminum Market

Global market got rid of the panic sentiment overnight as a result of slower rising pace of China’s CPI, purchases of Italian and Spanish debt by European Central Bank to curb spreading of the debt crisis, and marker expectations for loose monetary policies by FED, with US stock prices and commodity prices rebounding and the Dow Jones index returning to 11,000. Meanwhile, gold price also hit a historical high of USD 1,779.18/oz. Later during the day, after US FED said to maintain current interest rates at 0-0.25%, the US dollar index further dropped below 74, but closed slightly higher at 74.027 at the tail of trading, down 1.09%.

LME aluminum prices fluctuated upward overnight after hitting an intraday low of USD 2,363.3/mt at the beginning, and returned to above USD 2,400/mt with a series of positive news. Aluminum stocks in London also fell continuously to 440 million mt, which supported LME aluminum prices. Finally closed prices was USD 2,411/mt, up USD 16.3/mt or 0.68%. Total positions rose by 13,810 lots to 740,560 lots.

LME aluminum prices opened higher at USD 2,430/mt on August 10th supported by falling US dollar index, and are expected to fluctuate between USD 2,420-2,480/mt during the day. Most active SHFE 1110 aluminum contract prices are expected to open higher at RMB 17,200/mt and fluctuate between RMB 17,100-17,700/mt. With rebounding SHFE aluminum prices, spot premiums are expected to fall to positive RMB 50-100/mt over SHFE current-month aluminum prices. Purchases in the market are expected to slightly cool down as a result of firm quotes by goods holders.