SMM expects China’s aluminium plate/sheet and strip output will mark a 2% Y-o-Y growth at 2022-end

According to the Shanghai Metals Market, China’s aluminium plate/sheet and strip output is expected to amount to 12.9 million tonnes at the end of 2022, reflecting an increase of 2 per cent over the year. Aluminium foil output is estimated to clock at 4.75 million tonnes at year-end, up 3 per cent year-on-year.

The output of can body stock, can end stock and packaging foil is estimated to close the year at 1.88 million tonnes, 500,000 tonnes, and 2.4 million tonnes, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, the output of can body stock and can end stock will record an 11 per cent hike, while packaging foil will reflect a 4 per cent growth. SMM estimates robust demand for aluminium plate/sheet and strip for food packaging will drive the growth of the aluminium flat rolled industry.

The output of auto body sheet is projected to elevate by 23 per cent Y-o-Y to 432,000 tonnes and that of auto breezing sheet by 13 per cent to 788,000 tonnes, bolstered by the rapid development of the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry and general trend of lightweight cars. The production of battery foil is likely to soar 111 per cent to 270,000 tonnes over the year.

Meanwhile, some products indicate degrowth at the end of the year for different reasons. The output of air-conditioner foil is expected to decline by 14 per cent from last year to close at 860,000 tonnes. Light gauge foil and electronics foils production is foreseen to drop by 17 per cent to 705,000 tonnes and 11 per cent to 98,000 tonnes, respectively.

Looking forward to the next year, SMM predicts the production of packaging aluminium semis to drop amid the global economic downturn, although rangebound under the support of stable demand. On the other hand, the output of light gauge foil and battery foil is likely to rise.