Rusal predicts an improved demand for aluminium spurred by automakers

The aluminium market may be headed for a profitable 2015, with an estimated rise of 6.5% in global demand, based on the observations and forecasts expressed in Rusal’s Quarterly Report for the year ending in December 2014.

The company reported a rise in demand in the global market to 55.2 million tons from the previously forecasted 55 million tons, marking a rise of 7% compared to the same period of 2013.

Automakers have already reported a record amount of aluminium consumption with more people choosing the metal as a viable alternate for steel as a result of the falling prices and new technological breakthroughs.

Rusal predicts that demand from the automotive industry will rise by another 7% in 2015 as automakers tilt further towards the lighter aluminium along with the current rise of demand for cars due to the temporary slump in the oil prices.

The supply side has had marginally lesser variation with only 0.2% decline in 2014 YoY to 25.6 million tons. Throughout the year more than 1.3 million tons of capacity was shuttered (outside China), but another 200,000 tons of capacity was restarted.

The production is expected to pick up by another 4% in 2015 as a result of increased activity in the Middle East, other Asian countries and India. Nearly 320,000 tons of smelters in the West are expected to be restarted in 2015, while another 700,000 tons capacity is likely to be shuttered this year.

Meanwhile, overcapacity in China continues to pull down the SHFE price which has dropped by 16% since mid-September 2014.