As of the third quarter, Guinea's exports of bauxite, irrespective of natural calamities like heavy rainfall and regulatory headwinds, have surged by 23 per cent year-on-year. According to the report of the Ministry of Mines and Geology, the country's critical aluminium feedstock shipment also rose to 39.41 million tonnes, showing an increase of 7.41 million tonnes in comparison to the third quarter of 2024.
Guinea, considered the globe's second-largest bauxite producer, produced an average of 13.14 million tonnes of bauxite in Q3 2025. This represents a dip of 19 per cent in comparison to the H1, mainly because of climate disruption, such as heavy rainfall. Heavy rainfall is a challenge for the bauxite mining industry as it plays havoc with the mine access, which results in slower port operations as well as the country's overall supply chain.
Irrespective of the country's military-led government's recent actions of revoking miners' licences and restricting them from aluminium refineries, resulting in operational uncertainty, nudged the rebound.
Bernabe Sanchez, an independent mineral economist focused on Guinea, stated, "With these volumes, Guinea’s annual bauxite output is likely to land around 180 million tonnes – well below the pace set in the first half, but still more than 20 per cent above last year’s record."
Another factor behind the increased exports of bauxite from Guinea is that maximum shipments went to China, accounting for 54.6 per cent of Q3 exports. According to the Guinean ministry data, major Chinese firms like SMB-Winning took in 17.51 million tonnes, and other companies, including CHALCO and CDM-CHINE, also assimilated good tonnes of bauxite.
Also read: Guinea to boost bauxite production by 50 million tonnes through new infrastructure deal
Generally, China holds almost one-third of Guinea's bauxite exports, providing an edge for Beijing to dominate the world's aluminium supply chain. Chinese official data shows that China's aluminium output remained strong with a 2.6 per cent growth rate in the primary aluminium production in Q1 2025, with the major demand drivers being the infrastructure and electric vehicles.
Another factor contributing to the surge in Guinea's bauxite export is the long-delayed Simandou iron ore project, which is currently in the process of shipping its first shipment that would be going towards Chinese territory. With the double exports from Guinea to China, Beijing can intensify its grip over Guinea's mining production as well as bind Conakry as the key supplier of industrial engines to China.
In Q3 2025, despite the rising pressure on the domestic miners for developing alumina plants, Guinea's export of alumina reached 78,000 tonnes. On the other hand, LME aluminium CMAL3 price reached USD 2,747.50, depicting a rise of 0.4 per cent.
Explore our report “A Comprehensive Analysis of Bauxite Residue - Red Mud” to have wider insights and forecast on bauxite.
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