Rise in primary aluminium liquid metal ratio lower than expected in April, expected to edge higher in May

According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminium output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7 per cent year-on-year and fell by 2.9 per cent month-on-month.

As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminium sheet, strip & foil and aluminium wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminium ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3 per cent in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminium profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminium ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminium ingot output in April dropped by 3.4 per cent year-on-year and 9.0 per cent month-on-month.

Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminium capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes.

Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminium production ratio among domestic primary aluminium producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminium fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminium ratio. Comprehensively, the liquid aluminium ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8 per cent.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.