Calculate Embedded Emissions for Unwrought Aluminium (HS7601)

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Payable emissions (tCO₂e/t)

Total CBAM Cost (€)

Notes:
There may be a difference when calculating the price with respect to import volume, carbon price, and benchmark emissions, as the embedded formula may result in minor variations due to decimal rounding. Therefore, the actual value may vary.

CBAM is applicable to trade volumes starting from 50 metric tonnes. For trade volumes below 50 metric tonnes, CBAM does not apply.

Usage Procedure – How to use the CBAM Calculator Sheet

Enter or update values only in the INPUT
PARAMETERS section (Highlighted in blue) , including
the carbon price, benchmark emissions, CBAM
chargeable percentage (as per the phase-in year),
and imported quantity.

The system will automatically calculate the payable
emissions and the total CBAM cost (€) based on the
inputs provided.

Notes:
• Change any input value to automatically update CBAM cost.
• Formula used: Carbon price × payable emissions × quantity.
• Model aligned with CBAM supplier-side illustrative methodology.

09 JANUARY 2017 AL CIRCLE

Research firm sees better aluminium outlook for Press Metal Bhd

EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 3MINS READ

According to a Kenanga Research report, Press Metal Bhd is expected to see further earnings growth in 2017, driven primarily by the rising US dollar and stronger aluminium prices. This positive move is also supported by strong demand from Asia ex-China.

Aluminium prices recovered about 16% over 2016, to settle at around US$1,733 a tonne. After conversion to Malaysian ringgit, aluminium prices recorded a 21% increase to settle at around RM7,775 a tonne.

“Looking ahead, we expect 2017 US dollar aluminium prices to stabilise at the US$1,600 to US$1,800 level with an average of US$1,700/MT,” says Kenanga Research, an analytic firm, in a report last Friday.

The research house maintained an “outperform” stand on the Press Metal Bhd stock with a higher target price of RM2.15 from RM1.79 previously. For the first quarter of 2017, Press Metal stock is the top pick in the market.

The bulk of the revenue earned by Press Metal is denominated in US dollar while only 30% of its production costs (alumina) are denominated in US dollars. The rest of its raw material costs are denominated in yuan (carbon anodes) and ringgit (electricity, transport, labour and others). This makes its production much more profitable and the firm is hoping for better returns in 2017 with the rising US dollar.

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Kenanga Research reviewed that the global demand rose to 4.9 million tonnes over the year as of October 2016. This was at par with the production figures which have been on a downward scale due to the closure of non-profitable plants, particularly in China and also in USA.

“Although Chinese supply/demand is still at a 287,000 MT at 1% production surplus, we note that Asia ex-China demand deficit is far more substantial at 2.34 million MT or a 7% deficit to production.” the research firm added.

The firm supports their positive outlook for Press Metal and expect the firm to benefit from the growing demand as international automakers such as Japan and Korea are its prime clients.

Kenanga Research expects Press Metal to improve its net margins in FY16-17E to 6.2-7.3% from 5.4% in FY15 with the newly commissioned smelter at Samalaju. Notwithstanding the growth in the current fiscal there is still potential for further margin in 2017, driven by the US dollar’s appreciation, improved efficiency as a result of optimum full-year utilisation, and raised volume of higher value added aluminium alloy products.

Kenanga Research has upgraded Press Metal’s FY17 estimated core net profit by 13% to RM519 million. This is in view of better US dollar/ringgit assumption to 4.25 from the earlier 4.10 and the revised margin assumptions.