In the first half (H1) of 2026, the US imported a total of 1.68 million metric tons of unwrought aluminum (HSN code: 7601), of which 16.96% was sourced from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). How has H1 2026 fared for the momentum of unwrought aluminum exports from the UAE to the US? Year-on-year cooling in trade can be noticed, largely owing to the temporary shutdown of the Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA’s) Al Taweelah smelter for repair and maintenance. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: “ Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook ” H1 aluminum trade snapshot: 2026 vs 2025 vs 2024 Comparing the H1 2026 figures of unwrought aluminum exported by the UAE to the US, a mixed result...
Norsk Hydro’s earnings outlook for 2027 is facing mounting pressure from falling aluminium premiums, rising operating costs and easing supply tightness in Europe, prompting Goldman Sachs to downgrade the Norwegian producer from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ and reduce its price target from NOK 100 (USD 10.71) to NOK 79 (USD 8.46). Goldman said weaker premiums and higher costs were making further earnings growth harder to achieve in 2027. The bank also lowered its core earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 6 per cent each, citing lower aluminium prices and rising costs. The changing market conditions come as additional metal from the Middle East reaches the market and Indonesian aluminium supply expands faster than expected, easing European supply constraints sooner than Goldman had...
Grow with
AL Circle
Citi has reinstated coverage of Alcoa Corporation with a buy rating and a USD 42 price target, to improve aluminium market conditions and the company’s consistent operating performance. Image for representational purposes. The stock, currently trading at USD 29.81, is viewed as undervalued based on Citi’s estimate of USD 1.9 billion in mid-cycle EBITDA, which equates to about 5 times earnings at mid-cycle and 6 times at spot prices. The bank forecasts second-quarter 2025 EBITDA at USD 393 million, aligning with market consensus. However, Citi notes that free cash flow remains a key concern, particularly at current aluminium prices. The company’s San Ciprián facility in Spain, which is undergoing restructuring and was recently affected by a nationwide power outage, is cited as a source of...
Cambodia has drawn an impressive $5.8 billion in fixed-asset investments in the first half of 2025, marking a remarkable 77 per cent surge compared to the same period last year, according to the Council for the Development of Cambodia (CDC). Greenlight to 373 investment projects The country greenlit 373 investment projects between January and June, almost doubling last year's figure of 190 projects, setting the stage for the creation of around 255,000 new jobs. The booming investment highlights Cambodia's rising appeal as a dynamic destination for growth and development. According to the Council for the Development of Cambodia (CDC), China remained the leading foreign investor, followed by investors from Singapore, Vietnam, the United Kingdom, the United States, Samoa, and South Korea....
At the International Conference on Sustainable and Responsible Mining, Union Minister G. Kishan Reddy unveiled the Aluminium Vision Document, signaling a strategic shift in how India views and manages one of its most vital industrial resources. Framed within the broader Viksit Bharat 2047 vision, the roadmap lays out an ambitious plan to increase aluminium production nearly sixfold by the country’s 100th year of independence. Despite being the world’s second-largest aluminium producer, India currently contributes only 6 per cent to the global output, underscoring a significant gap between capacity and potential. The new vision aims to bridge this gap not just by scaling production but by transforming aluminium into a central pillar of India’s sustainable development model. Building...
Aluminium prices fell by 0.56 per cent and are settled at INR 249.15 (USD 2.99) per kg, where the fall is witnessed due to the weak manufacturing demand, irrespective of immense support from the supplies. As per the latest manufacturing Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) by China's National Bureau of Statistics, another contraction month has been indicated, stipulating challenges in sustainable recovery in the world's top aluminium-consuming sector. Concerning China's production, aluminium output rose by 5 per cent year-on-year, reaching 3.83 million tonnes in May 2025. The total year-to-date China's total aluminium output stood at 18.59 million tonnes, representing a surge by 4 per cent. Concerning the global aluminium output, as per the data of Aluminium Institute, the year-on-year...
As the July 9 deadline approaches, the US trade partner countries are looking to initiate deals with the Trump administration for tariffs to snap back to higher levels. Moreover, more than 100 partners are expected to see a "reciprocal" rate of 10 per cent in the coming week, where the possibility of emerging flurry deals materialises before the deadline hits. Image source: customssuport.com Stand of the Chinese trade partners Currently, the US has eased the export restriction on China for conducting business with chip design software and ethane, indicating a calming trade tension between the two countries. This ease had come into being after signing an agreement in May, concluding a framework directing larger trade deals. US-based software firms like Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS)...
According to a recent report, the Canadian government has entered into critical discussions with Rio Tinto to assess the financial support required to help the company overcome the crushing effect of the US aluminium and steel tariffs. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, speaking on July 3 during her visit to Quebec's Saguenay region, confirmed that Ottawa is willing to provide liquidity support to safeguard jobs in Canada's aluminium sector. Businesses need liquidity, and we're ready to help - stated Joly during her meeting with local business leaders. The previous day, Minister Joly paid a visit to Rio Tinto's aluminium smelter in Arvida, Quebec, where she met with the company's leadership team, employees, and the union, and conveyed the Canadian government's message that its priority is to...
The Aluminium Federation (ALFED) has announced a strategic partnership with the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade, aimed at bolstering the UK aluminium sector’s international trade and technical capabilities. Unveiled during ALFED’s House of Lords lunch last week, the partnership marks a pivotal moment for the UK aluminium industry as it faces both emerging opportunities and critical challenges. Attended by industry leaders, parliamentarians, and government officials, the event served as a platform to highlight the aluminium sector’s role in building sustainable, competitive, and resilient supply chains for the future. Among the key issues discussed were the need to support the UK’s Net Zero ambitions, retain the economic value of secondary aluminium within the UK, and...
At a time when global bilateral trade relations face mounting uncertainty, India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are moving into a new alliance centered on premium aluminium and steel. According to a report on July 2, Union Steel Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy and UAE Economy Minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri met as part of a high-level engagement to advance India-UAE cooperation under the CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) framework. The meeting was focused on joint development of high-grade aluminium and steel, which are vital for India’s growing automobile and strategic sectors. “We see clear synergy in jointly producing and trading high-quality steel and aluminium for use in sectors such as automobiles, mobility, and high-end manufacturing,” Shri Kumaraswamy said while...
Vedanta Limited, an Indian multinational company, has represented solid returns in the first 6 months of 2025. The share price of the firm is poised to reach the INR 500 (USD 5.99) mark and has gained nearly 5 per cent over time, while continuing with the previously announced demerger activities. Under this demerger plan, the company will divide itself into five new companies, creating a significant opportunity for investors. Image source: vedantaaluminium.com On July 3, at 11:42 AM, Vedanta Limited's share price stood at INR 464 (USD 5.56). The price is expected to rise today and reach its highest value of INR 472.35 (USD 5.66), which reflects on the same price as achieved on March 27, 2025, where the value stood INR 472.35 (USD 5.66). On June 16, a week ago, the share price stood at INR...
Aluminerie Alouette, an aluminium manufacturer partially owned by Rio Tinto Plc, is set to invest up to USD 1.1 billion in upgrading its facilities in northern Quebec, according to sources familiar with the matter. Image credit: unctad.org The company has reportedly secured a new electricity supply agreement with Hydro-Quebec, the government-owned power utility, the sources said. They spoke on condition of anonymity as the details remain private. The planned investment is a positive development for an industry currently under pressure from US President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The White House has imposed 50 per cent tariffs on foreign aluminium imports, a move that is expected to impact US businesses reliant on the metal. For instance, Constellation Brands Inc., the beer and alcohol...
According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), the world’s primary aluminium production in May 2025 trended up over a month, mirroring the pattern observed in the same period last year—but with a sharper pace of growth. While in May 2024, the world’s output had grown by 2.22 per cent month-on-month, this year, it increased by 3.3 per cent. From 6.044 million tonnes in April 2025, global output rose to 6.245 million tonnes in May, while the same period in 2024 had seen a climb from 5.913 million tonnes to 6.151 million tonnes. Thus, on a year-on-year calculation, the production volume in May 2025 was 1.53 per cent higher than in the same period of the earlier year. Nations with a 5-month high output – China leads, but how long? The production increased worldwide, but in some...
Alcoa Corporation has announced the successful closing of its sale of a 25.1 per cent ownership interest in the Ma’aden Joint Venture to the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma’aden), by a binding share purchase and subscription agreement. Through this transaction, Alcoa has received proceeds of approximately 86 million Ma’aden shares, valued at around USD 1.2 billion, along with USD 150 million in cash, which will be used primarily to cover related taxes and transaction expenses. Alcoa expects to record a gain of roughly USD 780 million in other income in the third quarter of 2025, and consistent with its practice for non-core asset sales, will reflect this as a special item. As stipulated by the agreement, Alcoa is required to retain its Ma’aden shares for a minimum of three years. It will...
The aluminium processing industry experienced a marked downturn in June 2025, with the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropping to 40.1 per cent. This decline of 9.7 percentage points from May and 1.5 per cent year-on-year firmly placed the index in contraction territory below the critical 50-point mark. The drop signals a broad-based deceleration across all aluminium processing sub-sectors, driven by a complex set of challenges. Image Credit: unsplash.com A confluence of factors contributed to this downturn. Seasonal weakness was more acute than usual, intensifying the traditional off-season effect. Aluminium prices remained elevated at around RMB 21,000 per tonne, limiting the purchasing capacity of downstream sectors. Domestic demand weakened further due to sluggish cargo...
Despite India’s exports reaching a record USD 824.9 billion in FY 2024–25, aluminium exports declined sharply by 10.79 per cent, revealing sector-specific challenges amid an otherwise strong trade performance. Image for representational purposes only According to the Ministry of Commerce, total exports grew 6.01 per cent year-on-year, rising from USD 778.1 billion in FY 2023–24, driven primarily by robust growth in services and non-petroleum merchandise exports. The overall surge in India’s exports was supported by a 13.6 per cent rise in services exports, which reached a record USD 387.5 billion, and a 6 per cent increase in non-petroleum merchandise exports, which hit an all-time high of USD 374.1 billion. Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman acknowledged the resilience of Indian...
The Ministry of Environment (KLH) has officially sealed an aluminium smelter operated by PT MPI in East Cikarang, West Java, Indonesia after the company failed to comply with air quality guidelines and regulations aimed at addressing air pollution. As a result, the company was one of the major contributors to air pollution in the Greater Jakarta area. "Clean air is a fundamental right. There's no tolerance for companies that jeopardise public health for short-term profit," highlighted Environment Minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq. The action signals a growing intolerance for industrial negligence, especially when it endangers communities and undermines national air pollution control efforts. The enforcement followed a supervisory inspection that revealed the facility had failed to control...
Vedanta Aluminium, India’s largest aluminium producer and a business of Vedanta Group Ltd., is operating outside the conventional gender norms in a hardline manufacturing sector. It has decided to recruit 15 transgender employees in 2026, bringing the total to 44 at its Jharsuguda (Odisha) and Korba (Chhattisgarh) units. Image soure: Vedanta Aluminium The beginning of Pride Month has showcased a number of stories of inclusion from across the world, but Vedanta's decision represents a substantial shift towards inclusivity as a strategic advantage rather than a symbolic action. This can surely be acknowledged as one of the largest workplace integration drives in India's manufacturing sector, based on a straightforward business case. Rajiv Kumar, CEO of Vedanta Aluminium, said, “Inclusivity...
ALCORE, a majorly owned subsidiary of ABX Group, a global leader in the clean technology and materials sector, is gaining traction for ramping up its production capabilities backed by federal funding for aluminium-related industrial chemicals. The funding has been provided under the Modern Manufacturing Initiative to support the development of advanced recycling processes. The firm's dynamism marks broader global and national efforts aimed at expanding sustainable industrial methods while reducing emissions from heavy industries. The proprietary process in ALCORE primarily aims to extract hydrogen fluoride from the aluminium smelter bath waste, along with other critical compounds. With the accumulation of funding from the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, the transition from...
In a recent event, where the US retaliated and dismissed India's request for a safeguard measure on aluminium and steel, it was not a bilateral discussion at the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Now, India is on the road to imposing a retaliatory tariff only if the US fails to continue the conversation on the imposed tariff on aluminium and steel. Is this trade war between the US and India indicating a possible disruption in their trade relations? Image source: linkedin.com A recent report by Moneycontrol indicates that there is no sign of action initiated or implemented by India during the bilateral talks conducted at the WTO. But, both regions were focused on striking a favourable trade deal by July 9, when the reciprocal tariffs were paused for 90 days. However, on July 4, the Trump...
