In the first half (H1) of 2026, the US imported a total of 1.68 million metric tons of unwrought aluminum (HSN code: 7601), of which 16.96% was sourced from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). How has H1 2026 fared for the momentum of unwrought aluminum exports from the UAE to the US? Year-on-year cooling in trade can be noticed, largely owing to the temporary shutdown of the Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA’s) Al Taweelah smelter for repair and maintenance. Explore the production, demand and consumption forecasts of bauxite and alumina in our report: “ Global Bauxite & Alumina Market Forecast to 2036: Supply–Demand, Trade Flows & Price Outlook ” H1 aluminum trade snapshot: 2026 vs 2025 vs 2024 Comparing the H1 2026 figures of unwrought aluminum exported by the UAE to the US, a mixed result...
Norsk Hydro’s earnings outlook for 2027 is facing mounting pressure from falling aluminium premiums, rising operating costs and easing supply tightness in Europe, prompting Goldman Sachs to downgrade the Norwegian producer from ‘buy’ to ‘neutral’ and reduce its price target from NOK 100 (USD 10.71) to NOK 79 (USD 8.46). Goldman said weaker premiums and higher costs were making further earnings growth harder to achieve in 2027. The bank also lowered its core earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 6 per cent each, citing lower aluminium prices and rising costs. The changing market conditions come as additional metal from the Middle East reaches the market and Indonesian aluminium supply expands faster than expected, easing European supply constraints sooner than Goldman had...
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India’s free trade agreement with the UK is expected to be a big win for aluminium exporters, as it will remove the import duties. But there is also a catch. From January 2027, the UK will bring in its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — a tax linked to carbon emissions. Industry executives warn this could claw back much of the benefit, leaving Indian producers struggling to keep prices competitive in the British market. Role of FTA The FTA eliminates import duties on aluminium products, which previously ranged from 2 per cent to 10 per cent in the UK market. Industry players expect this change will improve India’s competitiveness. Vedanta Aluminium Chief Executive Officer Rajiv Kumar said, “With the FTA now in place, the aluminium industry aims to treble its export to the UK by...
London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices rose between August 22 and August 26, supported by firm demand, while stocks showed a marginal decline. Trading was closed on August 25 due to the UK Summer Bank Holiday. The LME aluminium cash bid price climbed from USD 2,588.5 per tonne on August 22 to USD 2,611 per tonne on August 26, an increase of 0.87 per cent, while the cash offer price rose from USD 2,589 per tonne to USD 2,611.5 per tonne, up 0.87 per cent . The 3-month bid price advanced 0.79 per cent to USD 2,607 per tonne, compared with USD 2,586.5 per tonne earlier, and the 3-month offer price gained 0.83 per cent to USD 2,609 per tonne from USD 2,587.5 per tonne. The December 26 bid price moved up to USD 2,655 per tonne from USD 2,637 per tonne, a rise of 0.68 per cent while the...
As of August 2025, the US has doubled the tariff from 25 per cent to 50 per cent for both aluminium and steel, but in the same context has exempted import tariffs on refined copper, making a visible contrast between the metals. The exemption has been made with consideration of the key role of the higher electricity costs as well as the dynamics of lobbying pressure contributing to the US policy. Macquarie analysts, Century Aluminum and data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) have all weighed in on the implications of these tariffs for domestic production and global trade. The expansion of the tariff on aluminium and steel included hundreds of derivative products which contain the metals in question. This move was undertaken to close the circumvention loopholes in the tariff and boost...
According to the latest data from the US Geological Survey, the United States’ aluminium crude metal and alloys imports increased over the year during January-May 2025, even as shipments from Canada - the country’s top supplier - declined. The data highlights two key trends: (1) Canada retained its position as the leading exporter despite a drop in volumes, and (2) the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stepped in to offset the shortfall, driving overall import growth. Canada holds lead but volumes erode From January to May 2025, Canada exported 1.02 million tonnes of aluminium crude metal and alloys, compared to 1.17 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year, reflecting a Y-o-Y decrease of 12.8 per cent. To be noted, Canada’s primary aluminium exports to the US remained...
United Company RUSAL has finally crossed over on the winning side of a long-running courtroom battle that threatened to saddle the world’s second-largest aluminium producer with hundreds of millions in potential liabilities. Image for representational purposes only The company announced that the Commercial Court of the North-Western Region has upheld earlier rulings in its favour, dismissing a claim brought by SUAL Partners ILLC. At the heart of the dispute were hedging transactions linked to aluminium prices, which SUAL alleged had triggered losses amounting to USD 760 million. SUAL Partners is a significant minority shareholder (around 25.5 per cent) in UC Rusal, with ownership interests held by figures like Viktor Vekselberg. Also watch: Aluminium and Other Base Metals: Understanding...
US aluminium exports keep shrinking. In the first half of 2025, volumes plunged to 562.17 thousand tonnes down from over 804.67 thousand tonnes a year earlier, same period. It continues the downward trend from 679.20 thousand tonnes in H1 2023 and 593.52 thousand tonnes in H1 2022, as reported in the Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 by the US Geological Survey. In H1 2024, the main destinations for US aluminum exports were Malaysia, Mexico, Canada, India , and Thailand. By H1 2025, the top markets shifted to Japan—leading with 66,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminum alloy—followed by India, South Korea, Mexico, and Vietnam. This sharp fall underscores a worsening crisis in the US aluminium industry, driven by a combination of factors such as smelter and refinery shutdowns, rising energy...
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd, a Malaysia-based largest aluminium smelter in Southeast Asia, has announced its Q2 2025 financial results, with revenue closing at RM 4.19 billion from RM 3.95 billion. Y-o-Y, a significant growth of 6 per cent was recorded, backed by higher sales volume. Q-o-Q, the revenue also surged by 7.7 per cent from RM 3.89 billion in Q1 2025. As a result, profit after tax and minority interests (PATAMI) eased 4 per cent to RM 483.6 million in 2Q FY2025. From January to June (H1 2025), the total revenue arrived at RM 8.08 billion ( USD 1.78 billion )compared to RM 7.56 billion for the same period last year (H1 2024), reflecting a Y-o-Y hike of 6.9 per cent, and PATAMI inched up 3 per cent to RM945.3 million, reflecting steady demand and the company’s resilience...
The aluminium markets have just seen another twist in what’s become a long-running stocks carousel. But this time, the spin may be nearing its end. As reported by Reuters on August 20, over the past six weeks, a hefty 156 thousand tonnes of aluminium found its way into London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses. Yet, this wasn’t fresh metal entering the system. It was almost exclusively a reclassification of existing off-warrant supplies already stashed away in Port Klang, Malaysia. Image for representational purposes only So, when you read ‘reclassification of existing off-warrant supplies’, it means the metal was already physically sitting in the warehouse (say, Port Klang in Malaysia). But it was being kept off the books in private storage deals. Now, some of that same aluminium has been...
South32, one of the world’s most prominent diversified miners, finds itself at a critical juncture. The company is caught between the looming silence of its Mozal Aluminium smelter in Mozambique and the fresh promise of growth from its Australian assets. Together, these developments illustrate the challenges and recalibrations shaping the future of one of the sector’s most closely watched players. The decision to suspend operations at Mozal after March 2026 is a sobering one. For months, the company wrestled with the question of whether Mozambique could guarantee the competitively priced and reliable electricity supply that smelting demands. With no resolution in sight, South32 conceded that running Mozal under the proposed tariffs would render the operation “internationally...
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd continues to benefit from supply constraints, easing input costs, and its low-carbon edge. Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) Research has reaffirmed its “buy” rating on the company, lifting its target price (TP) by 12 per cent to RM6.34 per share from RM5.64, valuing it at 25 times earnings for the financial year ending Dec 31, 2026 (FY26). Operational performance & market overview Maybank IB Research noted that plant utilisation rose to 96–97 per cent in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25), following the full restoration of operations at Samalaju in March 2025 after the September 2024 fire incident. While geopolitical risks could temper demand, the research house highlighted that slower supply growth of 1–1.5 per cent in 2025, compared to 3.2 per cent...
London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices posted slight gains on August 22 compared to the previous session. The LME aluminium cash bid price climbed to USD 2,588.5 per tonne from USD 2,570 per tonne from August 21, while the cash offer price increased to USD 2,589 per tonne from USD 2,570.5 per tonne, reflecting an uptick of about 0.72 per cent. Three-month contracts also moved higher, with the bid price reaching USD 2,586.5 per tonne and the offer settling at USD 2,587.5 per tonne, marking gains of approximately 0.60 per cent and 0.62 per cent respectively. Forward prices for December 26 delivery edged up as well, with the bid at USD 2,637 per tonne and the offer at USD 2,642 per tonne, both rising by around 0.53 per cent. The LME aluminium three-month Asian Reference Price stood at...
China has formally sought dispute consultations at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Canada's surtaxes and quotas on aluminium and steel products, the WTO announced on Wednesday, August 20. According to the WTO notice, the contested measures include a surtax applied through tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on certain steel imports from non-free trade agreement (FTA) partners, including China. Beijing is also challenging a surtax imposed on goods containing steel or aluminium of Chinese origin. "We will not hesitate to act when our industries are threatened by unfair practices. These measures are a direct response to China's overcapacity and non-market behaviour, which are undermining Canada's steel sector and threatening Canadian jobs," said Huzaif Qaisar, a spokesman for Trade Minister...
India is at the centre of global trade discussions after reports suggested that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had issued a circular enabling BRICS nations to settle 100 per cent of their trade in Indian Rupees (INR). Analysts argued that such a shift could weaken the US dollar’s dominance in international trade and strengthen BRICS’ collective bargaining power. Though there is no such official mandate for BRICS to conduct all trade in rupees. Instead, several outlets noted that the RBI has relaxed norms by allowing banks to open Special Rupee Vostro Accounts (SRVAs) without prior approval, a move aimed at promoting INR-based trade at a time when US tariff measures continue to create uncertainty for BRICS countries. The latest circular, issued on August 5, 2025, builds on an earlier...
At its 66th Annual General Meeting, Hindalco Industries Ltd, the metals flagship of the Aditya Birla Group, announced plans for approximately USD 10 billion in global investments over the next five years, spanning aluminium, copper and speciality alumina, Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla informed shareholders. The metal flagship's expansion strategy features significant projects in India and abroad, including an INR 18,000 crore (USD 20.63 billion) capex in FY25, deemed as the highest in nearly a decade. As of now, the company is among the leading global players in aluminium, copper and speciality alumina and is embarking on an ambitious growth trajectory, as attributed by the Chairman. Moreover, the company is also boosting the upstream capacities with nearly 180,000 tonnes expansion at the...
After three consecutive days of decline from Monday to Wednesday, LME aluminium prices rebounded on Thursday, August 21, rising by USD 4 per tonne (0.15 per cent) and USD 3.5 per tonne (0.13 per cent). Why did the price increase? The growth was supported by expectations of stronger demand from the top consumer, China. Market participants also kept a close watch on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech for cues on the policy outlook. According to analysts at broker Guosen Futures, anticipation of a seasonal demand recovery next month may have further lifted aluminium prices. Earlier in the week, efforts to broker an end to the geopolitical crisis had raised hopes of increased supply from Russia, putting downward pressure on aluminium prices at that time. LME price Both...
The European Union is still waiting for Washington to deliver on key promises made under the trade deal struck at the end of July 2025. While the agreement set a 15 per cent baseline tariff on European exports, already in effect since last week — Brussels says other critical measures remain pending. EU officials had earlier signalled that a joint statement and executive orders from US President Donald Trump would follow the deal “very soon.” But on Tuesday, a European Commission spokesperson admitted uncertainty over the timeline. The spokesperson said , “It is an agreement that we believe is strong and the best we could have ... Of course, we expect the US to take further steps that are part of this agreement but I don’t believe at this stage we can put a timeline on these engagements.”...
There is a long history of economic relationships between India and Japan. The key events that fortified this relationship were Japan's contributions to India in the steel sector in the 1950s and Japan's direct investments in the IT sector in the 1990s, and now Japan is beginning to depend on India for aluminium sector supply. India is developing as a reliable provider for Japan's aluminium supply. In 2024, Japan imported nearly USD 337 million (UN COMTRADE) worth of aluminium from India, one of the top four suppliers. This has not happened by accident. Changing geopolitical scenarios, sanctions that included Russia and the need for cleaner production have opened up new space for India's manufacturers. Why aluminium matters to Japan Japan's major industries, comprising transport,...
RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) reportedly expects that Press Metal Aluminium Holdings Bhd is projected to post a higher net profit for the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, supported by lower alumina prices. The core earnings are expected to grow Q-o-Q to between RM480 million and RM520 million, though this remains slightly below its earlier projections. During Q1 2025, the company's revenue stood at RM 3.89 billion. If we compare Y-o-Y, during Q2 2024 , Press Metal's revenue closed at RM 3.95 billion, representing a significant boost during Q2 2025. The improvement is attributed to the decline in alumina prices to USD 350 per tonne, which has reduced its alumina-to-aluminium cost ratio to 14 per cent, compared to the three-year historical average of 18 per cent. "However, this may be...
