1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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LME aluminium climbed 3.7% to a record high in two months, driven by US sanctions and trade restrictions on Rusal. LME aluminium tested a high of $2,242 per tonne overnight as the US dollar weakened and as the US-Russia trade conflict took over the trade war issue. Reuters reported yesterday London Metal Exchange will suspend Rusal's aluminium from its list of approved brands from April 17. According to data by the exchanges on Monday April 9, Eastern Europe accounted for 36% of LME aluminium inventories, the majority of which is supplied by Russia. The metal contract finally closed at US$2,172 on Tuesday April 10. According to Shanghai Metals Market analysis, LME aluminium is likely to trade rangebound at US$2,185-2,235 today. SMM sees further upward room for LME aluminium. As on April...
Average A00 aluminium ingot price seems to be on a rising spree amidst an overall positive sentiment in the China market, where there’s a balance forming between production and consumption resulted in aluminium inventory and output plunge and input costs’ steady escalation. After a sharp rise from RMB 14080 per tonne to RMB 14200 per tonne yesterday April 10, 2018, Shanghai Metal Market research found a further hike of average A00 aluminium ingot price to RMB 14230 per tonne today April 11, 2018. The prices are expected to range between RMB 14210 and RMB 14250 per tonne with spot discounts to settle at RMB 110 to RMB 70 per tonne. This on-going week has been showing a great growth of average aluminium ingot price ranged between RMB 14080 per tonne and RMB 14230 per tonne against the last...
India and US are going to exchange dialogue over Indian aluminium and steel imported tariffs at India-US Trade Policy Forum Meeting today April 10, 2018 at Delhi. As reported, India is looking forward to an amicable settlement to the issue and not willing to indulge in a trade war with the US. “The issue of raised tariffs on steel and aluminium will be discussed at length at the Indo-US Trade Policy Forum meeting on Tuesday in New Delhi, but we don’t know yet what the US expects in return if it were to withdraw the duty hike. We will approach the matter with an open mind as we do not want a trade war with the country which is an important trade partner,” said a government official. He even said that the aluminium and steel items which have been penalised with import tariffs are largely...
US sanctions on Rusal has lifted the LME aluminium price, creating metal supply insecurities among traders and investors. LME aluminium contract rallied two per cent on Monday’s trading and finally closed at US$2,113-per tonne on April 9 from US$1967 on Friday, April 6. Shanghai Metals Market expects LME aluminium to stay range bound between the 40- and 60-day moving averages with a trading range at $2,110-2,150 per tonne considering the panic buying by traders encouraged by the US sanctions. As on April 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2113 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2114 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2121 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2128 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2155 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price...
As reported by Reuters shares of aluminium producer Rusal, owned by Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska plunged as much as 41.8 per cent on Monday in Hong Kong Exchange after the U.S. administration announced sanctions on its co-founder Oleg Deripaska and seven other firms linked to him. They were the most prominent targets in a list of 12 Russian companies the U.S. hit with sanctions on Friday. U.S. sanctions generated uncertainties and doubt among the traders and investors on the future of the company’s banking and trading relationships. “The company’s initial assessment is that it is highly likely that the impact may be materially adverse to the business and prospects of the group,” the company said in a filing to the Hong Kong bourse on Monday. It said further evaluations were being...
After the two days of holiday for Qingming Festival in China on Thursday April 5 and Friday April 6, the aluminium market shows an overall positive sentiment. Aluminium traders, manufacturers and investors get a reason to rejoice as both aluminium inventory and output declined. According to the Shanghai Metal Market data on Sunday April 8, China’s refined aluminium inventory including SHFE warrants plunged and returned to 2.227 million tonnes as downstream producers boosted their stock piles. This brings back an optimistic revision in aluminium inventory after a hike on April 4, 2018 from 2.27 million tonnes to 2.231 million tonnes. The current inventory status in major Chinese cities is as follows: Another update from SMM shows a fall in Aluminium output as well, which is down by 2.7 per...
Norwegian aluminium company Norsk Hydro ASA's wholly-owned subsidiary Hydro Energi AS has signed a long-term power contract with Norwegian power producer Statkraft, for annual supply of 0.75 terawatt hours (TWh) from 2021 to 2030 and 1 TWh from 2031 to 2038. The contracts will contribute to supplying power to Hydro's aluminium plants in Norway in the years after 2020, when the existing long-term power contract with Statkraft expires. "We have a good and long-standing relation with Statkraft, and I am pleased that we have been able to secure additional long-term renewable power for our Norwegian aluminium portfolio at competitive terms", says Executive Vice President and Head of Energy and Corporate Business Development Arvid Moss. Since 2014 Hydro has, including the above-mentioned...
After registering a record low in eight months, LME aluminium touched a high at $2,063 per tonne last Friday. After the announcement that the U.S. sanctioned and froze Oleg Deripaska's assets subject to US jurisdiction, aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange gained by 2.2% at the close on Friday April 6. However, the initial upturn started correcting and the contract finally closed the trading day at US$1967 on Friday, April 6. London aluminium rallied two per cent on Monday’s trading and is expected to rise further. SMM expects LME aluminium to trade between $2,060-2,100 per tonne today while traders will be on a buying spree due to uncertainties regarding Rusal aluminium. As on April 6, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 1966 per tonne, LME official settlement price...
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has reported a year-on-year increase in both production and sales for the first quarter of 2018. The company’s sales volume reached 251,637 tonnes in Q1 2018, an increase of 3.6 per cent Year-over-Year (YoY). Production stood at 259,399 tonnes, up 4.3 per cent YoY In addition, the company closed the quarter with Value-Added (VA) sales averaging 58 per cent of total shipments, from 56 per cent for the same period in 2017. Commenting on Alba’s Sales volume and Production for Q1 2018, Alba’s Chief Executive Officer, Tim Murray said: “Despite the market’s volatility, we continue to capitalize on our culture of ‘always do better than necessary’ and were able to stretch our targets thanks to our operational efficiency and dedication of our employees.” We aim to continue...
The Trump administration imposed punitive sanctions on Friday April 7, which includes seven Russian oligarchs, 12 companies they own or control, as well as 17 senior Russian government officials. The sanctions are an extension of US sanctions passed in response to Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, and were called for under a law passed by Congress last year. The U.S. government included Russian magnate Oleg Deripaska and his aluminium company Rusal on its sanctions blacklist. This is expected to have a strong impact around the world because his business empire has a global footprint and counts major multinationals as partners. Acording to U.S. administration, Mr Deripaska and eight of his companies were placed under sanctions as they were “benefit[ing] from the Putin regime and play[ing]...
Century Aluminum, a global producer of primary aluminum has created a buzz with an announcement that it is going to invest US$116.5 million for the improvement of one of its smelters in Hawesville, Kentucky and offer jobs to 250 personnel. This announcement was made on Wednesday April 4, 2018 by Governor Matt Bevin, where he said that the company will upgrade its smelting technology and train new and existing employees to use the new equipment for producing aluminium required for aerospace, defense, and electrical industries, reported by The Messenger-Inquirer of Owensboro. On the advent of this news, many county leaders and business owners have started analysing its potential impact on the market. Hancock County Industrial Foundation Director Mike Baker said that this enhancement of...
The most dreaded downturn in aluminium that was worrying analysts during the peak period in 2017 seems to be approaching. Trump’s trade restrictions on import acted as a catalyst in the already volatile meal market. LME continues downward trend without any strong fundamental in the international market. After losing its position of US$2,000 per tonne the LME aluminium contract finally closed much lower at US$ 1969 per tonne on April 5. It is likely to extend its downward trend in the light of growing trade tension. There is no clear indication of further stability in price. According to Metal Bulletin analyst Andy Farida, "With no sign that global on-exchange stock levels are declining or that there will be a toned-down approach from the US or China on fresh tariffs, LME aluminium is...
LME continues downward trend as there is no strong fundamental in the international market. The inventories are high and the market is buzzing with trade restrictions and counter actions among countries. After losing its position of US$2,000 per tonne on yesterday’s trading after seven days of consecutive decline, the LME aluminium contract finally closed much lower at US$ 1972 per tonne on April 4. It is likely to extend its downward trend in the light of growing trade tension. There is no clear indication of further stability in price. According to Metal Bulletin analyst Andy Farida, "With no sign that global on-exchange stock levels are declining or that there will be a toned-down approach from the US or China on fresh tariffs, LME aluminium is likely to remain under downside...
After a successive decline of aluminium refined inventory over the last couple of weeks, SMM updated on April 4, 2018, including SHFE warrants that it hovered at 2.231 million tonnes. Although the inventory went down from 2.243 million tonnes seen in the last week, it was slightly up from 2.227 million tonnes recorded in the early week Monday April 2, 2017. This hike after a continual fall over the past weeks might be due to tight aluminium supply in the domestic market because of China’s 25 per cent tariffs on sourced aluminium scraps from the US, resulting in a lesser secondary aluminium production in the market and forbidding downstream consumers from stocking. The above chart demonstrates the overall transactions in some of the major China markets, where there has been a slight rise...
According to data from Ministry of Mines, aluminium exports from India have recorded a sharp rise of 34.02 per cent YoY during April-January, 2017-18. The sharp rise was caused by growing domestic production and sluggish domestic demand growth. Our data shows India exported and estimated 1.20 million tonnes of aluminium in CY 2017. The total aluminium export is expected to rise further in 2018 to 1.27 million tonnes. However, data from the Ministry confirms exports of aluminium rose from 0.97 million tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes during the period. It is to be noted that primary aluminium production from April-February in the FY 2017-18 expanded 5.8 per cent YoY from 1.58 million tonnes to 1.67 million tonnes. For the Calendar year 2017, aluminium production stood at 2.8 million tonnes....
On the first day of trading after Easter Holidays on April 3, the LME aluminium contract closed at US$ 2010 per tonne , recovering from a near eight-month low of US$1997 a tonne on Thursday, March 29, before the holidays. LME aluminium lost its position of US$2,000 per tonne on today’s trading after seven days of consecutive decline. It is likely to extend its downward trend in light of US China trade tension. SMM expects the contract to trade between $1,975-2,000 per tonne today. As on April 3, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2008 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2010 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2026 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2027 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2082 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2087...
Emirates Global Aluminium, the largest industrial company in the United Arab Emirates outside oil and gas, and Abu Dhabi Ports have opened a facility which will reduce trucking of EGA’s aluminium within Khalifa Industrial Zone Abu Dhabi (KIZAD) by over 290,000 kilometres per year, reducing costs and environmental emissions. The new container freight station will be used to load metal into containers for transfer onto ships for export. It has been built by Abu Dhabi Ports close to EGA’s Al Taweelah site to reduce the trucking distance for each consignment by approximately 17 kilometres. Last year EGA shipped some 600,000 tonnes of aluminium from Khalifa Port, requiring over 17,000 truck movements from EGA’s site to the quayside. Total emissions savings from shortening the journey to...
As updated by Shanghai Metal Market, pre-baked anode prices are experiencing a decline on 4th month in a row. As per the update, Weiqiao Group has negotiated with its suppliers to lower the purchasing price by RMB 300 per tonne for April and closed it at RMB 3,590 per tonne. This indicates that an oversupplied pre-baked anode market is lessening prices due to growing demand for raw materials from smelters and falling of refined aluminium inventory post winter heating season. Following Weiqiao's move, other smelters are getting involved in negotiation with their respective suppliers and lowering prices by some RMB 300 per tonne. Prices are expected to be cut by another RMB 200 per tonne in May and likely to fall below average costs based on current input cost. On the other hand, other raw...
