1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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After the stupendous surge in average A00 aluminium ingot price from RMB 14450 per tonne to RMB 14720 per tonne on April 17, 2018 on the occasion of aluminium production rise to 8.12 million tonnes in China in the first quarter of 2018, it again remained unchanged on April 18, 2018, Shanghai Metal Market learned. Like the previous day, the prices are expected to range between RMB 14700 and RMB 14740 per tonne, with a slight swing in spot discounts to settle at RMB 70 to RMB 30 per tonne. However, a few major markets in China have registered slight changes on the positive note, including East, South and North, wherein the aluminium ingot prices witnessed a growth to RMB 14715 per tonne from RMB 14690, RMB 14720 per tonne from RMB 14685, and RMB 14730 per tonne from RMB 14720 respectively....
Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased further to close at US$2375.5 per tonne on Tuesday, April 17, up from the previous day's close at US$ 2358.50 per tonne. According to Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium rebounded and closed at US$2,411 per tonne after it dipped to a low of US$2,346 per tonne as the ZEW eurozone economic sentiment indicator fell short of expectations overnight. SMM expects it to remain at high levels in the short run due to US sanctions on Rusal. The contract will trade in the range of US$2,389-2,470 per tonne today. As on April 17, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2375 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2375.50per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$2371.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2372 per...
Two back-to-back incidents in the aluminium industry, started with Norsk Hydro’s production cut followed by the US sanctions against Russian aluminium oligarch Oleg Deripaska-led Rusal could lead to aluminium supply starvation in global market, said Hydro’s chief executive on Monday April 16, 2018. The situation may get worsen further if Hydro’s production cut at its aluminium plant Albras in Brazil continues longer, in addition to an unresolved dispute at its nearby Alunorte alumina refinery. It may even result in an output cut at Norwegian smelter, which receives alumina from Alunorte, said Svein Richard Brandtzaeg. “This is not positive for the aluminum industry. We’ve got long-term customers seeking stable relations, and our car-making customers are particularly worried in this...
As seen by Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium soared and hit a high of US$ 2,403 per tonne since 2011, at one point overnight. The metal closed at US$ 2358.50 per tonne on Monday April 16, up from US$ 2325 per tonne on Friday April 13. As US sanctions on Rusal continues to cast a shadow on the market, SMM expects LME aluminium to trade rangebound at US$ 2,350-2,400 per tonne today. As on April 16, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2358 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2358.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$23048 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2349 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2300 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2305 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has increased to 1360275 tonnes. Live Warrants...
On 0.3 per cent increase in aluminium production over past three months this year totalling 8.12 million tonnes in China, average A00 aluminium ingot price surged once again across all major Chinese markets and closed at RMB 14720 per tonne after remaining unchanged at RMB 14450 from April 13 to April 16, 2018, according to Shanghai Metal Market on April 17, 2018. The prices are expected to range between RMB 14700 and RMB 14740 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 60 to RMB 20 per tonne. Prices registered a growth from RMB 50 per tonne to RMB 270 per tonne across all markets. While in East, the ingot price jumped from RMB 14455 per tonne to RMB 14690 per tonne; in North, the price registered a hike from RMB 14440 per tonne to RMB 14720 per tonne, as on April 17, 2018. Although...
LME aluminium shows some gain after a drop last Thursday. LME aluminium closed at US$2325 per tonne on Friday April 13, up from US$ 2220.5 per tonne on Thursday April 12. SMM expects LME aluminium to trade rangebound at a relatively high level of RMB US$2,260-2,295 per tonne today. Despite the US sanctions on Rusal, a record low SHFE/LME aluminium price ratio is likely to boost China’s aluminium exports and offset the global dip in supply, according to Shanghai Metals Market. As on April 13, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2324.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2325 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$2302.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2303.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2245 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at...
After swinging between 2.231 million tonnes and 2.227 million tonnes over a week, China’s aluminium inventory dropped further to 2.216 million tonnes, according to Shanghai Metal Market on April 16, 2018. This is 15000 million tonnes down from 2.231 million tonnes recorded on April 12, 2018. Transactions in major Chinese cities have plunged, as indicated in the below chart. According to SMM, the average A00 aluminium ingot price remains flat since 13th of April, 2018 at RMB 14450 per tonne. This indicates a stable market sentiment with not much shift or alteration. The prices are expected to continue ranging between RMB 14430 and RMB 14470 per tonne, with only a slight swing in spot discounts to settle at RMB 110 to RMB 70 per tonne. While in East the average aluminium ingot price is...
According to the Quint report, Indian aluminium producers, especially the integrated ones having presence right from raw material to final product like Hindalco and Nalco are likely to be benefitted on the US sanctions against twelve Russian companies including billionaire Oleg Deripaska-led Rusal, said Gautam Chakraborty, analyst-institutional research at brokerage Emkay Global Financial Services. The sanctions against Rusal followed by the ban of Russian aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange has resulted in inevitable price jump by 8 per cent in the last two days, primarily because Rusal accounted for 13 per cent of the global output outside China and recorded to produce 3.71 million tonnes of primary aluminium in 2017 and also earned about 14 per cent of revenue from the export...
China’s inventory of refined aluminium has been oscillating between 2.231 million tonnes and 2.227 million tonnes since more than a week. After a plunge to 2.227 million tonnes on April 8, 2018, the inventory including SHFE warrants once again soared to 2.231 million tonnes on Thursday April 12, 2018, with increased transactions in some of the major Chinese cities like Wuxi and Jiangsu, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. More details are as follows: According to another update from Shanghai Metal Market, average A00 aluminium ingot price jumped conspicuously from the previous day to close at RMB 14450 per tonne. Although aluminium ingot price was more or less on a rising spree over a couple of weeks from RMB 13960 per tonne on April 4 to RMB 14080 per tonne on April 9 followed by RMB 14200...
Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange dropped to close at US$ 2220.5 per tonne on Thursday, April 12, down from the previous day’s close at US$ 2253 per tonne. According to Shanghai Metals Market, US sanctions on Russia buoyed LME aluminium as investors added their long bets overnight. This followed after prices fell to a low of US$2,203 per tonne under pressure from a higher US dollar as LME aluminium inventories surged 90,000 tonnes to 1.25 million tonnes. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,275-2,315 per tonne today. As on April 12, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2219 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2220.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2211 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2212 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price...
Anglo-Swiss miner and commodity trader, Glencore Plc has decided to terminate 50,000 tonnes of contract specifying metal of Russian origin, Rusal in particular, as reported by anonymous sources. In the recent time, amidst a series of news clouding the internet relating to the US slapped punitive sanctions on Rusal, Glencore to declare force majeure on aluminium supply from Russia has not missed to grab the attention of many stalwarts in the industry. Initially, it was not very clear what volume would come under force majeure or which buyers would be affected. On Tuesday April 10, Glencore reported while evaluating the contracts that those contracts with Rusal were not very “financially material” to the company. However, the declaration of force majeure did not appear as a surprise to most...
Vedanta Resources reports record aluminium annual production at 1.7 million tonnes for the Full Year ended 31 March 2018. Aluminium production for the fourth quarter FY2018 was at 477,000 tonnes, up 35% YoY and 7% QoQ. The growth was primarily driven by the ramp up at the Jharsuguda-II smelter. It followed the complete ramp up of the Balco II smelter in Q1 FY2018. The exit monthly run rate stood at c.2.0 million tonne. Stabilised aluminium production (i.e. production excluding trial run) was 468,000 tonnes in Q4 FY2018. Ramp-up of line-1 and line-2 at Jharsuguda-II were completed in Q3 FY2018 and Q4 FY2017 respectively. At line-3, 220 pots are powered on and the full ramp-up was delayed due to infrastructure development works undertaken by the railway authorities for capacity enhancement....
Owing to the unwillingness of East China sellers to move following the rebound of the SHFE 1806 contract, trading in China’s aluminium spot market dipped on Wednesday April 11, 2018, learned Shanghai Metal Market. As a result, the average A00 aluminium ingot price dropped drastically from RMB 14,230 to RMB 14,170 per tonne today April 12, 2018. The prices are expected to range between RMB 14150 and RMB 14190 per tonne with spot discounts to settle at RMB 80 to RMB 40 per tonne. While the transactions at Shanghai and Wuxi hovered at RMB 14,200 to 14,230 per tonne with spot discounts ranged between RMB 70 to RMB 60 per tonne, Hangzhou and Guangdong witnessed transactions at RMB 14,210 to RMB 14,230 per tonne and RMB 14,240 to 14,280 per tonne respectively. However, in Guangdong, although...
LME aluminium registered five consecutive days of gains as the US imposed sanctions on Russian aluminium giant Rusal. It hit US$2,277.5 per tonne overnight, a record high since early January 2018. After testing a record high the metal contract finally closed at US$ 2253 per tonne on Wednesday April 11, up 3.7% from US$2,172 on Tuesday April 10. According to Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium is likely to remain strong in the short term and to trade at US$2,220-2,260 per tonne today. As on April 11, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2251 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2253 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2243 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2245 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2232 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands...
Albras Alumínio Brasileiro, the second largest aluminium producer in Brazil is going to curtail aluminium production by 50 per cent at its Albras Aluminium Plant, decided yesterday April 10, 2018 by the company’s board of directors. After curtailment, Albras will produce only around 230,000 tonnes against its earlier annual production of 460,000 tonnes. This decision is primarily taken due to Alunorte’s indisposition to supply all the required alumina to Albras after being forced by the state environment office of Para to halve the production in March, 2018 because of non-compliance relating to residue leak from bauxite deposition through clandestine tubes. However, the Brazilian aluminium smelter has a plan to recommence its full production once Alunorte also resumes its production like...
The announcement of the first Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI) certification, bagged by Rio Tinto’s integrated aluminium facilities in Quebec, Canada and Northern Territory, Australia, for meeting the industry’s highest standards in respect to environmental, social and governance practices across the aluminium lifecycle has taken the internet by storm. Rio Tinto's five aluminium smelters, the Vaudreuil refinery, casting and spent potlining treatment centres and associated infrastructure such as power, port and railway facilities in Quebec, Canada, along with the Gove bauxite mine in Australia have received the award. Rio Tinto was also the first founding member of the ASI, the only comprehensive voluntary sustainability standard initiative for the aluminium value chain to ensure...
The sanctions imposed on Rusal and its main owner, metals magnate Oleg Deripaska is creating huge concern in the world aluminium market. According to data by LME on Monday April 9, Eastern Europe accounted for 36% of LME aluminium inventories, the majority of which is supplied by Russia. The sanctions imposed on Rusal and its main owner, metals magnate Oleg Deripaska, mark the first time a major international company has been targeted by Washington. After the sanctions, London Metal Exchange said it would suspend Rusal's aluminium from its list of approved brands from April 17. Rusal, the leading aluminium producer that churned out 3.7 million tonnes of aluminium in 2017, supplies about ten per cent of total US aluminium import. Rusal accounts for about 17% of supply outside of China,...
Since when the Trump administration has announced punitive sanctions against a list of Russian individuals and entities including the aluminium-giant Rusal, every individual associated with aluminium industry has been anticipating the most dreadful conditions to come. One of them was Rusal’s suspension from the London Metal Market’s brand list, which is going to turn true very soon as the London Metal Exchange approves suspension of Rusal’s metal from its brand list. This would be put into effect from April 17, 2018, according to a report. From that date onwards, any metal owner wanting to place warrants on aluminium under any brand of Rusal will have to provide written evidence as a proof to not violate sanctions. Otherwise, the LME warehouses will not accept it for storage. This is a...
