1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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Iran is rapidly progressing to launch a new aluminium smelter South Aluminium Company (Salco) in early 2019 in the Lamerd special economic zone in the south of the country near the Persian Gulf. The smelter is expected to boost the country’s aluminium production by 70 per cent and make it self-sufficient by taking advantage of rich natural gas reserves. Media Barbadian, deputy minister of industry, mining and trade told the CRU Aluminium conference in London on Tuesday, April 24, 2018, the construction of the smelter is underway and due to produce 300,000 tonnes per year in the first phase. Karbasian, the chairman of IMIRDO, the state-owned Iranian Mines and Mining, Industries, Development and Renovation Organisation, owns 49 per cent share of the smelter, while another 51 per cent is...
After a wild week of surging, LME aluminium fell 7 per cent on Monday, its biggest one-day drop in eight years, after the United States had extended the deadline for companies to complete business with sanctions-hit Russian producer Rusal. LME aluminium fell further yesterday and hit a low of US$2,175 per tonne as Rusal’s Kubal smelter in Sweden said it has resumed part of the deliveries and operations. Finally the aluminium contract closed at US$2,222 per tonne on Tuesday April 24. Shanghai Metals Market expects the LME aluminium contract to trade at US$2,165-2,255 per tonne today. As on April 24, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2,221 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2,222 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2221 per tonne, 3-months offer price...
Hydro recorded underlying earnings before financial items and tax of NOK 3,147 million in Q1 2018, up from NOK 2,284 million in Q1 2017.The increase mainly reflects a higher all-in metal and alumina prices that was partly offset by increased raw material costs. The production cut at Alunorte and Paragominas during March had a negative impact on the results for Bauxite & Alumina in Q1 2018. The results were driven by higher realized alumina sales prices offset by higher raw material prices and reduced output at both plants. "The US sanctions on Rusal have caused great uncertainty in the world’s aluminium markets and will impact trade flows and availability of metal and raw materials throughout the aluminium value chain. The Brazilian authorities’ embargo on Alunorte adds to the uncertainty...
Alba’s Chief Executive Officer Tim Murray said on Tuesday that the company is seeking an exemption from U.S tariff on aluminium. “We are in the process of doing that application,” Murray told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in London. If an exemption is not granted, “Ultimately the tariffs will be passed along in terms of the mid-west pricing... the consumer is going to pay,” he said. The company currently exports 120,000 tonnes of aluminium to the United States. Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, and South Korea were granted temporary exemptions until May 1, 2018. He said: “Alba is currently the fifth largest smelter in the world; I am proud to say that in CRU 2019, Alba will be the world’s largest smelter with an annual production capacity of 1.5...
After witnessing a marginal rise from RMB 14870 per tonne to 14940 per tonne on April 23, 2018, the average A00 aluminium ingot price reversed its course to close at RMB 14480 per tonne today April 24, 2018, according to Shanghai Metal Market. The prices are expected to range between RMB 14460 per tonne and RMB 14500 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 50 to RMB 90 per tonne. To say the truth, aluminium ingot price has been oscillating at an interval over a period of time following the production cut at aluminium plants across the globe due to unavailability of alumina, owing to 50 per cent production curtail at Norsk Hydro’s alumina refinery. On 20 th of April, 2018, the aluminium ingot price had plunged considerably from RMB 15070 per tonne to RMB 14870 per tonne and just...
LME aluminium registered the biggest one-day decline in history and lost close to 10 per cent. The metal tumbled to a low of US$ 2,237 per tonne following the US Treasury Department’s announcement to extend the time limit for US and non-US citizens to wind up business with Rusal, according to SMM. LME aluminium closed lower at US$ 2452 per tonne on Monday April 23. The US Treasury on Monday said that it would consider lifting the sanctions if Russian aluminium giant Rusal’s major shareholder Oleg Deripaska ceded control of the company SMM expects LME aluminium to remain weak in the near term and test support at the 20-day moving average with a trading range of US$ 2,170-2,270 per tonne. As on April 23, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2451.50 per tonne, LME official settlement...
According to Iran’s annual performance report of aluminium sector FY2017-18, released by Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIRDO) today April 23, 2018, about 340,000 tonnes of aluminium ingots were produced over the year, with the production capacity of 487,000 tonnes and estimated to rise to 780,000 tonnes by 2020 and 1.2 million tonnes by 2025. However, the country’s aluminium ingot production accounted for 18,300 tonnes in the one-month period. Iran’s three leading companies Iranian Aluminium Company (IRALCO), Al-Mahdi Aluminium Corporation (AAC) and Hormozal produced 337,608 tonnes of aluminium ingots in the 12-month period, down 1 percent less year-on-year. In the meanwhile, the demand for aluminium in Iran stands at about 500,000 tonnes....
Chinese aluminium giant Chalco reported a 19.4 per cent drop in the first quarter net profit due to lower aluminium prices. The company’s net profit declined to 308.6 million yuan ($48.94 million) in the first three months of 2018 as against 382.9 million yuan in the corresponding period last year. The company said in a filing to the Shanghai stock exchange that it generated revenue of 36.7 billion yuan, down 10.5 per cent, according to a report published by Reuters. The price decline continued in January-March period, with Shanghai aluminium futures falling 10.6 per cent, the worst quarter since the middle of 2010, as Chinese inventories rose, Reuters reported. According to a filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company produced around 3.61 million tonnes of...
Poland imported US$230.5 billion worth of goods from around the globe in 2017. Aluminium represents 5.7 per cent of the total imports of the country. Norway is one of the top aluminium suppliers to Poland. Poland imported an estimated 177734 tonnes of aluminium from Norway in 2017. Other top countries which supplied aluminium to the country were Russian Federations, Netherlands, Sweden, and United Arab Emirates among others. On a quarterly basis, Poland imported an estimated 205928 tonnes of aluminium in the third quarter of 2017 (July- September), and in fourth quarter of 2017, the volume stood at about 203738 tonnes. Poland imported aluminium worth US$ 419 million and US$ 409 million in third and fourth quarter of 2017 respectively. In the first quarter of 2018, estimated aluminium...
After a gain on Thursday to US$ 2602.5 per tonne, LME aluminium closed lower at US$ 2463 per tonne on Friday April 20. As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, given the US sanctions on Rusal and the anticipated production cut, LME aluminium technically remains its upward trend but with weaker momentum. SMM expects it to trade at highs between US$ 2,435-2,525 per tonne today. As on April 20, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2461per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2463 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$2448 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2450 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$2338per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2343 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1395550 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 939750...
With an incessant rise in aluminium future price in China as a consequence of US sanctions against Rusal, a large number of brokers and downstream consumers are becoming keen to purchase and stock aluminium for their future use, thereby, contributing to an enthusiastic trading activity in China’s spot aluminium market across all the major Chinese cities on Thursday April 19, 2018, Shanghai Metal Market research found. While in Shanghai, most transactions stood between RMB 15080 per tonne and RMB 15160 per tonne with spot discounts hovering at RMB 60 to RMB 50 against the 1805 contract, in Wuxi and Hangzhou, transactions were seen strolling around RMB 15070 per tonne to RMB 15150 per tonne and RMB 15080 per tonne to RMB 15170 per tonne respectively. In Guangdong, on the other hand, were...
Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased further to close at US$2602.5 per tonne on Thursday, April 19, up from the previous day’s close at US$ 2528.50 per tonne on Wednesday April 18.According to Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium dipped to a low of US$22,397 per tonne and tested support at the five-day moving average overnight amid an overall selloff sentiment. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,410-2,500 per tonne today. As on April 19, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2597.50per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2602.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$2586 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2587 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2445 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2450 per tonne. The LME...
Alcoa Corporation, the leading global conglomerate in bauxite, alumina and aluminium, reported first quarter 2018 results that show resilient profitability amid lower alumina prices earlier in the year. The company closed the quarter on March 31, 2018 with $1.2 billion cash, down $162 million sequentially, but up $392 million year-over-year. Alcoa is projecting its full-year 2018 adjusted EBITDA excluding special items to range between $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion due to recent favourable market conditions. In first quarter 2018, Alcoa reported net income of $150 million and excluding special items, adjusted net income of $145 million. Alcoa reported $653 million of adjusted EBITDA excluding special items, down 18 percent from $796 million in fourth quarter 2017. “Lower alumina prices...
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) kicked-off the 2nd quarter of 2018 with the safe delivery of two of six rectifier transformer units to Line 6 Expansion Project Site. The world’s largest rectifier transformer (rectiformer) rated at 120 kA at 1880V DC, is designed and built by Fuji Electric, Japan. The equipment for the third and fourth rectiformers have been shipped from Japan and are scheduled to arrive on-site by mid-May 2018 while the final shipment of the remaining units is expected to reach Alba by July 2018. Commenting on this milestone, the Chairman of Alba’s Board of Directors, Shaikh Daij Bin Salman Bin Daij Al Khalifa said: “Line 6 Expansion Project is brimming with all kinds of activities – the construction of Line 6 Smelter, Power Station 5 and Power Distribution System (PDS)...
Following Glencore and Rio Tinto’s decision to declare force majeure on Russian aluminium contracts, Japanese companies have asked Russia’s united company Rusal not to ship refined aluminium and other products to them further. On the occasion of US sanctions against world’s No. 2 aluminium producer Rusal, many Japanese buyers are also left with concerns about the limited availability of aluminium and lifting global prices by a fifth. On London Metal Exchange (LME), the aluminium price has already hit the highest in last six years, hovering at US$2400 per tonne. "We have requested Rusal stop shipments of aluminum for our term contracts as we can't make payment in U.S. dollars and we don't want to take the risk of becoming a secondary sanction target by the United States," said an anonymous...
Amid soaring aluminium prices across the globe, aluminium companies in China are indeed savouring propitious time as their stock prices reach the highest level. Shanghai Metal Market learned early this morning 19 th of April, 2018 that the stock prices of Aluminium Corporation of China (Chalco) climbed 6 per cent to hit the highest level of 4.96 yuan per share in last one month. On the event of US sanctions against Russian aluminium companies including the aluminium giant Rusal, as well as, Glencore’s and Rio’s decision to declare force majeure on Russia-linked contracts have jointly triggered the price surge of both aluminium and alumina globally. According to Shanghai Metal Market, China too is witnessing a price hike, as the price of average A00 aluminium ingot surged remarkably from...
As seen by Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium registered a fresh high since August 2011 at one point overnight .The metal closed at US$ 2528.50 per tonne on Wednesday April 18, up from US$2375.5 per tonne on Tuesday, April 17. SMM sees considerable upward room for it given the sweeping influence from US sanctions on Rusal and the potential production cut. SMM forecasts it to strongly trade at US$ 2,540-2,600 per tonne today. As on April 18, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2527.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2528.50per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$2522per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2523 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2433 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2438 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock...
One of the world’s largest metals and mining corporations Rio Tinto today announced aluminium output for the first quarter of 2018. The production has plunged by 5 per cent in Q1 to stand at 0.8 million tonnes against the contemporary period last year. This is primarily due to disruptions at its Becancour smelter in Canada. The company has declared its total divestments of US$5 billion for 2018 as well, subject to binding offers for the Aluminium Dunkerque smelter in France for US$500 million and the ISAL aluminium smelter in Iceland for US$345 million. The sales are expected to complete in the second quarter of 2018. Rio also reported that it is reviewing Rusal’s 20 per cent stake in its Queensland Alumina Refinery, along with bauxite sales to Rusal’s refinery in Ireland and offtake...
