1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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LME aluminium surged to a high of US$2,330 per tonne at one point overnight. Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange further increased to close at US$ 2269 per tonne on Wednesday May 2, from US$2258 per tonne on Tuesday, May 1. SMM sees limited upward momentum with no development in the Rusal sanctions. LME aluminium is expected to trade at US$2,280-2,330 per tonne today. As on May 2, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2268 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2269 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$2269 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2270 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$2250 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2255 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock stood at 1323425 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at...
New Zealand Aluminium Smelters, controlled by the mining giant Rio Tinto, has declared to restart its fourth potline in next six months to strengthen production capacity at Tiwai Point smelter by about 9.2 per cent and create 32 new jobs in Scotland. The company takes this decision on securing a power contract for 50 megawatts per hour until December 2022 and estimates to boost its production by 85 tonnes a day, which amounts to 31,000 tonnes a year, up by 9.2 per cent from the existing production of 337,000 tonnes. NZAS chief executive Gretta Stephens said, "It is never good to have a cold potline at a smelter as it represents a capital investment that isn't contributing to our economy and our community." Adding to it, he also said, “NZAS is well-placed to offer metal that is...
The Kubal smelter, Rusal’s sole producer of primary aluminium in Sweden, with a production capacity of 134,000 tonnes was suspended from trading on the Nord Pool energy trading market a couple of weeks ago, in the wake of US sanctions on Russian companies. Within a week, the latter, Europe’s leading power market, is striving to find a solution to restore access to Kubal, as reported by Reuters on Friday, April 27, 2018. Nord Pool’s spokeswoman intimidated Reuters via e-mail on Friday that they are now cooperating with Kubikenborg Aluminium to find a solution for it. According to the spokeswoman, the suspension was due to a violation of Nord Pool’s rule book that operates independently of any US sanctions on Rusal. The detail of the violation, however, could not be provided due to the...
LME aluminium registered gain after a drop on Monday. Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased to close at US$2258 per tonne on Tuesday, May 1, up from the previous day’s close at US$ 2224 per tonne on Monday April 30. SMM expects LME aluminium to trade rangebound at US$2,235-2,270 per tonne today if there is no further development on the Rusal sanctions. As on May 1, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2257.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2258 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$2252 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2253 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$2238 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2243 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock stood at 1325925 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 925250...
After two days of holiday on the commemoration of Labour Day in China, Shanghai Metal Market unwrapped witnessing a drop in aluminium inventory on Wednesday, May 2, 2018, to close at 2.2 million tonnes. To say the truth, aluminium inventory had been witnessing a fall over the past one week, hovering at 2.231 million tonnes on 23rd of April, down from 2.248 million tonnes, and 2.21 million tonnes on April 26 respectively. Lowering of future price due to less investment on future contract by downstream consumers was the primary reason for the aluminium inventory plunge last time; while arriving of limited deliveries over the Labour Day holiday and rise in shipment ahead of the holiday bears the key responsibility for a further dip this time. Transactions in some of the major Chinese markets...
Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C (Alba) presented its financial results for the First Quarter of 2018. The Company’s top-line and bottom-line performance for the first quarter of 2018 were driven primarily by 17% YoY increase in LME prices coupled with favourable management performance. Alba Total Sales stretched by 16% YoY to reach BD 221.3 million (US$ 588 million) versus BD 190.4 million (US$ 506 million) in Q1 2017. The Company posted a Net Income of BD 33.9 million (US$ 90 million) versus BD 25.6 million (US$ 68 million) in Q1 2017, an increase of 32% YoY. During the Annual General Meeting (AGM) which was held on Wednesday 07 March 2018, Alba approved a dividend of BD 36.8 million (US$ 98 million) and paid on 21st March 2018. Alba also streamlined its 2018 Priorities: Focus on Safety Selfie...
Most of the base metals remained rangebund before the pre-Labour Day weekend when the China market remains closed. Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange dropped to close at US$2224 per tonne on Monday, April 30, down from the last week’s close at US$ 2249 per tonne on Friday, April 27. U.S. President Donald Trump has postponed the imposition of steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada, the European Union and Mexico until June 1, and has reached agreements for permanent exemptions for Argentina, Australia and Brazil, the White House said on Monday. London aluminium slipped on Tuesday after the United States delayed the tariffs for some countries and announced permanent exemptions for others. The announcement has raised the prospect of better metal supply, partially releasing the...
According to Shanghai Metal Market on April 27, 2018, Weiqiao Group has reduced the purchasing prices of pre-baked anode. This is the fifth month in a row that the group has lowered the prices. For May, the prices are hovering at RMB 3390 per tonne in cash and RMB 3425 per tonne, which are RMB 200 per tonne lower than the previous month. This indicates that the pre-baked anode prices for May have dwindled even below the average costs. Even for lower-cost producers, these prices are considered to be around the break-even line as they offer other discounts. On the other hand, SMM updated on the same date that the average spot prices of pre-baked anode remained unchanged, all across the major Chinese markets. While in East and Central, the prices were standing at RMB 3625 per tonne and RMB...
Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased to close at US$2249 per tonne on Friday, April 27, up from the previous day’s close at US$ 2204 per tonne on Thursday April 26. LME Aluminium lost about 8.2 per cent over last week, having fallen sharply on Monday and Tuesday with the extension of the sanctions on Rusal. This has initiated the biggest weekly drop since August 2011, although it is still up 13.1 per cent in April due to Rusal issues, the best since September 2010. London aluminium prices started edging lower on Friday after a 1.3 per cent jump in the previous session, as US sanctions on Russian producer Rusal continued to haunt the trader community. Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was down 0.4 per cent at $2,265 a tonne by 0717 GMT, having risen...
According to Shanghai Metal Market, cargoes transactions with invoices for May dominated the spot aluminium market in East China on April 27, 2018. This was primarily because market participants rushed to take advantage of the last trading day before that value-added tax (VAT) came into effect. The SHFE 1805 contract rose in the morning. While on one hand, Shanghai saw most transactions done at RMB 14410 per tonne to RMB 14420 per tonne with premiums RMB 0 to RMB 10 per tonne against the SHFE contract, on the other hand, Wuxi and Hangzhou witnessed transactions at RMB 14410 per tonne to RMB 14420 per tonne and RMB 14460 per tonne to RMB 14470 per tonne respectively. East China also witnessed stable shipments while traders stockpiled less and downstream consumers purchased on demand for...
The Canadian government announced today new measures to prevent transhipment and metal diversion in Canada, in addition to those announced on March 27, 2018. “This announcement reinforces Canada’s position as a reliable jurisdiction to be counted by other countries” said Jean Simard, President and CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada (AAC). In the context of the U.S. section 232 investigation and the threat of a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminum exported to the U.S., the alignment with American rules for marking of aluminium products demonstrates Canada’s willingness to collaborate with the United States. According to Jean Simard, “This is another manifestation of our shared interest in managing the continental commercial border for the entire North American aluminum industry”. “We...
After showing some gain and closing at US$2248 per tonne on Wednesday April 25 after three days of falling, LME aluminium closed down at US$ 2204 per tonne on Thursday April 26. The light metal contract then surged to a high of US$2,316 per tonne overnight after the news that Oleg Deripaska, Rusal’s major shareholder would continue to maintain control over Rusal. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade strongly rangebound at US$2,220-2,350 per tonne today. As on April 26, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2,203 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2,204 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2205.5 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2206 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2192 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2197 per tonne....
The average A00 aluminium ingot price has risen up marginally on Shanghai Metal Market on 27 th of April, 2018, from RMB 14360 per tonne to RMB 14430 per tonne. The prices are expected to range between RMB 14410 per tonne and RMB 14450 per tonne, with spot discounts to settle at RMB 20 to RMB 60 per tonne. All the major Chinese markets have also seen a surge. While in East, including Wuxi city and Jiangsu, the price has increased from 14350 to 14415; in South and North, the prices have soared from RMB 14345 per tonne to RMB 14475 per tonne and RMB 14390 per tonne to RMB 14440 per tonne respectively. Average alumina spot price, on the other hand, according to Shanghai Metal Market, has been continuing to remain stable since 24 th of April to 27 th of April, 2018 to close at RMB 3135 per...
The European Union official journal reported on Thursday that EU has started monitoring imports of aluminium to determine whether the imported aluminium and steel tariffs imposed by the US have triggered a surge in metal shipments into the Europe or not. The European Union collects data on the quantity and value of incoming aluminium products in order to analyse if measures are needed to be taken to limit imports. The surveillance will apply to imports of aluminium exceeding 2.5 tonnes. The European Commission, which overseas trade policy in the 28-nation EU, believes that the 10 per cent tariff levied by the US on aluminium would increase the risk of more aluminium being diverted to Europe at depressed prices. According to the EU official journal data, the aluminium product imports have...
The Aluminum Extruders Council (AEC) stands in support of the Aluminum Association’s position that the Trump Administration must not impose quotas on imported primary aluminum products. Considering the disruption of this vital supply chain because of the Russian sanctions, any additional restraint of imported aluminum into the U.S. aluminum supply chain will lead to work stoppages at extrusion plants and their customers. Extrusion buyers will be forced to source parts from foreign suppliers as an alternative source to maintain production. In this case, the country most likely to supply these parts will be China. The entire U.S. aluminum industry has made it clear to the Administration during the 232 Investigation that China IS THE THREAT to our industry. We are sure that President Trump...
Asia’s largest integrated aluminium complex, National Aluminium Company (Nalco) hopes to have a double EBITDA margin in FY19. According to Tapan Kumar Chand, CMD of Nalco, EBITDA margin is expected to increase from 20 per cent at the end of Q3 FY 19 to 40 per cent by the end of FY19 backed by the soaring demand and prices of both alumina and aluminium. “Prices of alumina and aluminium have been firming up, if this trend is maintained, then we expect our margins to double by the end of FY19,” Chand told on the sidelines of The People Management Conclave, organised by the Bengal Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Aluminium prices, which were always on the uptrend since August 2017 owing to the global deficit in production, are continuing to grow even higher in the recent time on the back of...
After a three-day losing streak in the previous session, driven by the deadline extension to comply with U.S. sanctions on Rusal, LME aluminium contract finally saw some gain and closed at US$2248 per tonne on Wednesday April 25 from US$ 2222 per tonne on Tuesday April 24. The metal saw the seven-year high of $2,602.5 on April 19 in the wake of the sanctions, which left the market fearing a supply shortage. Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange was down 1.3 per cent at $2,217 a tonne, as of 0219 GMT. LME aluminium slipped 1.3 per cent lower on Thursday morning. As seen by Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium would remain rangebound today with a trading range at $2,185-2,275/t. As on April 25, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2,247 per tonne, LME official...
After a decline of aluminium inventory on 23 rd of April 2018, from 2.248 million tonnes to 2.231 million tonnes, it witnessed a further plunge to 2.21 million tonnes on Thursday April 26, 2018, down 21,000 tonnes from 2.231 million tonnes on April 23 and RMB 38,000 tonnes from 2.248 million tonnes on April 19, according to Shanghai Metal Market. This decline of the aluminium inventory on Thursday was primarily due to the lowering of future price, as a large number of downstream consumers are now putting less money on the future contract and more on the spot price, therefore, resulting in forbidding stockpile for the time ahead. Transactions across the major Chinese cities also went down or remained unchanged, as SMM observed. More details are as follows: On the other hand, SMM updates...
