1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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After Easter holidays LME aluminium opened higher today. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to rise and test support at the five-day moving average today and trade at US$2,005-2,030 per tonne. On Thursday, March 29, London Metal Exchange aluminium hit a near eight-month low, closing the week just above $2,000 a tonne. SMM expects LME aluminium to hover around the US$2,000 per tonne level this week and trade at US$1,995-2,020 per tonne with limited upward room given US-China trade tension and higher inventories. SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased from US$ 2187 per tonne on April 2 to US$ 2227 per tonne on April 3, while LME was closed and trading in China market started picking up. SHFE aluminium regained lost ground and...
The London Metal Exchange is closed on Friday and Monday for the Easter holiday. On Thursday, London Metal Exchange aluminium hit a near eight-month low, closing just above $2,000 a tonne. SMM expects LME aluminium to hover around the US$2,000 per tonne level this week and trade at US$1,995-2,020 per tonne with limited upward room given US-China trade tension and higher inventories. SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend The SHFE 1805 aluminium contract touched a high of RMB 13,955 per tonne following the strong performance of the ferrous complex on Friday night. The SHFE 1805 contract opened at RMB 13,700 per tonne in the morning and plunged to a low of RMB 13,630 per tonne before it rebounded and closed at RMB 13,770 per tonne. SMM expects it to trade at RMB 13,800-13,950 per tonne with...
China’s refined aluminium inventory has been exhibiting a drop for past two weeks owing to more and more consumption of downstream products in the market. According to the Shanghai Metal Market data, China’s aluminium inventory including SHFE warrants hovered at 2.23 million tonnes on Monday April 2, 2018, down from 2.24 million tonnes on Thursday March 29 and 2.29 million tonnes on Monday March 19. The inventory has dropped for two weeks in a row, with the transactions of 900,000 tonnes of aluminium in Wuxi and Jiangsu, 444,000 tonnes in Shanghai, 421,000 tonnes in Nanhai and Guangong, 195,000 tonnes in Gongyi and Henan. However, deliverable Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminium stocks recorded a price rise of about 1 million tonnes, while the metal declined by 10.7 per cent in the...
After a sharp hike in A00 Aluminium Ingot prices in China from RMB 13660 per tonne to RMB 13740 per tonne yesterday, it again witnessed a slight decline today March 30, 2018. According to Shanghai Meta Market, the average prices have reduced to RMB 13620 per tonne. The prices are expected to range within RMB 13600 to 13640 per tonne and spot discounts are expected to settle at RMB 100 to RMB 60 per tonne. However, despite the dip in prices, Shanghai Metal Market is optimistic about the future. It anticipates that aluminium prices will witness gain, as China plans to regulate captive power plants at aluminium producers with some support from higher power costs. In order to snip thermal power capacity, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has already issued The Regulation...
The month of March is ending with bearish sentiment for LME aluminium as the light metal contract dipped sharply to US$1,996 per tonne overnight, a record low since August 2017. The contract closed at US$1997 per tonne yesterday March 29, down from US$2009 per tonne on Tuesday March 28. As the inventory of LME aluminium ingots grew by 24,675 tonnes and the global market is buzzing with trade tensions, the market is lacking strong fundamentals that can support the prices. As on March 29, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 1996.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1997 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2013.50per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2014 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2073 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2078 per...
Not many days ago, India urged the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to exempt it from the recently-enacted US aluminium and steel tariffs. While already by now, the country has directly approached the United States for the exemption, with a supportive reasoning that its aluminium and steel exports could no way pose a security threat to the US, reported by three government officials. Last week, the US president Donald Trump relieved Argentina, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and the European Union from its heavy duties on imported metals and said that until May 1, 2018, the other countries seeking for an exemption should correspond with Washington. Therefore, India’s Trade Ministry has written to the US government, asking for the tariffs impunity. According to the report by...
The Canadian government announced new measures to prevent transshipment and diversion of metal in Canada on March 26 2018. President Trump announced his final decision to impose a 10% duty on all aluminium imports and exempted Canada for a temporary period for further negotiation for a permanent exemption. The country however fears a 10% duty on all aluminium and steel import may divert surplus metal from other countries towards Canada as they have not imposed any tax. So, the government has initiated measures so that no metal can enter the U.S. via Canada. "This announcement demonstrates Canada's leadership and commitment to the integrated North American aluminium supply chain, which benefits both Canada and the United States. It takes all available means and resources to protect the...
China’s refined aluminium inventory witnessed a further drop on Thursday March 29, 2018, as was expected by the analysts that refined aluminium inventory in China would start reducing between March and April this year after a rise in downstream consumption in the domestic market. According to the Shanghai Metal Market data, China’s aluminium inventory including SHFE warrants dropped to 2.24 million tonnes, down from 2.26 million tonnes on Monday March 26 and 2.28 million tonnes on Thursday March 22. According to SMM, since trading became active in the physical market in east China but relatively less in the Guangdong market on Wednesday March 28, transactions in Shanghai, Wuxi and Hangzhou started hovering at RMB 13,650 to 13,670 per tonne with spot discounts of RMB 70 to 60 per tonne...
After registering a temporary gain on March 28, LME Aluminium contract dropped from US$2035 per tonne on Tuesday March 27 as US dollar index rose to 90 and finally closed at US$2009 per tonne on Tuesday March 28. Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade at US$2,020-2,043 per tonne today. As on March 27, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2008 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2009 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2027 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2029 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2087 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2092 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1261625 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 996500 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 265125 tonne. LME aluminium 3-months ABR...
Russian aluminium producer Rusal said that the company believed Russia should be granted an exemption from the tariffs on imports of aluminium and steel imposed by the United States. Rusal supplies to the US markets with the low carbon aluminium. "Our subsidiary Rusal America in State of Delaware has been operating since 1999. We supply to the US market products with low carbon footprint, which are marketable, though scarce.” “ We assume that Russia should be exempted from tariffs for protecting American consumers from price growth, and for ensuring that the American manufacturing industry remains competitive," the company’s spokesman told TASS. U.S. President Donald Trump has temporarily exempted Argentina, Australia, Brazil, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and the European Union from import...
The Canadian government announced today new measures to prevent transshipment and diversion of metal in Canada. "This announcement demonstrates Canada's leadership and commitment to the integrated North American aluminium supply chain, which benefits both Canada and the United States. It takes all available means and resources to protect the integrity of this supply chain, while respecting the rules of international trade," said Jean Simard, President and CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada. In the context of the U.S. section 232 investigation and the threat of a 10% tariff on Canadian aluminium exported to the United States, these new measures will ensure that there is no foreign metal entering the United States via Canada, while demonstrating Canada's willingness to work with the...
LME aluminium registered some gain over yesterday’s trading as the dollar index slipped by 0.1 per cent to 89.29 and closed lower as it met some strong resistance. The light metal contract finally closed at US$2035 per tonne on Tuesday March 27. Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade at US$2,030-2,055 per tonne today. As on March 27, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2034 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2035 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2055 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2056 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2110 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2115 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1268175 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1031525 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 236650...
Yet another country asks for a relief from the US's high customs duties on imported aluminium and steel. The Israeli government is pressing the United States of America to exempt it from the tariffs as they are affecting the small businesses. As reported by “Globes”, Israel’s Ministry of Economy and Industry Foreign Trade Administration has already corresponded with the International Trade Administration in the US Department of Commerce seeking an exemption from the restrictions on aluminium and steel exports to the US. Israel’s official has put up a reason for the request that its metal exports to the US are too marginal (a total of US$25 million a year) to pose any kind of threat to the US economy. At the same time, limiting aluminium and steel exports from Israel to the US by imposing...
China’s aluminium giant and the world's biggest aluminium producer Hongqiao Group Ltd announced its results for 2017 on Friday. The company reported 25.3 per cent drop in its 2017 net profit due to capacity shutdowns and rising raw material costs. In a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange, the company reported a full-year net income of RMB 5.12 billion ($811 million), down 25.3 % from RMB 6.85 billion in the previous year. However, revenues increased 52 per cent to RMB 93.3 billion. Hongqiao attributed the fall in profit primarily to the production capacity closure following to Beijing’s direction. The filing referred to the mandatory capacity cut as “the group's response to the relevant policies and plans for the supply-side reform of the aluminium industry. Hongqiao did not divulge a...
LME aluminium continued to weaken overnight and closed the first trading day of the week at US$2022 per tonne on Monday March 26, and SMM expects this downward trend to continue today. SMM sees it trading at $2,035-2,060 per tonne today. According to Reuters, most base metals prices climbed on Tuesday, lifted by hopes that a trade war between top metals consumer China and the United States may be avoided. However, downward pressure will continue in case of LME aluminium. As on March 26, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2021.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2022 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2047 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2048 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2098 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2103 per...
Century Aluminum made a second attempt to get power rate relief from the S.C. General Assembly for its Mount Holly smelter and failed again. The company has a few months left before it will have to close the plant and its 300 jobs. The public utilities subcommittee of the House Committee on Labor, Commerce and Industry last week voted 4-2. The negative vote stopped Century from buying all of the electricity for its Berkeley County operation from the open market. Century currently gets 75 per cent of its power from open market and other 25 per cent from state-owned Santee Cooper. Century's current contract with Santee Cooper expires at the end of this year. Mike Bless, the president and CEO of Century said Mount Holly needs to start negotiating its open-market power deals by summer....
Like many other countries, India too is perturbed about the US aluminium and steel imports tariffs and thus, decided to approach the WTO’s dispute settlement body to question the duty hike, especially after an exception made for the European Union, Australia, Canada and Mexico by the US on late Thursday evening. Until the time the European Union was exempt from the US imports tariffs, Indian government thought to go along with the EU and approach the WTO. But now since the EU is outside the ambit of the hike, India has to design a new strategy by its own, said an incognito official. Brazil, South Korea, Japan and EU already questioned the US action (without naming it) when trade ministers and envoys from over fifty countries met in the Capital on Tuesday. Among them, Norway was the only...
Continuing with its downward pressure, LME aluminium is hovering at its lowest since late December. Metal prices also came under pressure amid mounting investor concerns that growing trade tensions would hurt the equilibrium in the global economy. LME aluminium saw weaker performance than its SHFE counterpart. LME aluminium closed the last week at US$2049 per tonne on Friday March 23 after registering a slight gain on Thursday’s closing. SMM expects LME aluminium to stay rangebound at lows with trading range at $2,045-2,065 per tonne today. As on March 23, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2048 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2049 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2070 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2072 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price...
