1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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China’s refined aluminium inventory saw a first dip last week to 2.28 million tonnes since the start of February. According to SMM data, China's aluminium inventory including SHFE warrants dropped further to 2.26 million tonnes as of Monday March 26. This is down from 2.28 million tonnes on Thursday March 22 and from 2.29 million tonnes on Monday March 19. According to SMM senior analyst Liu Xiaolei, Pressure on aluminium prices will emerge if China’s inventory grew over 2.4 million tonnes. In the Copper and Aluminium Summit in Shanghai on Friday March 23, he projected a turning point for the increasing inventory to appear in late March based on positive downstream demand outlook. Liu expected new aluminium capacity and restarted production to put pressure in the aluminium prices. He...
China, being the largest aluminium exporter to the US, has decided not to remain silent about Trump’s $3 billion tariffs imposition on Chinese aluminium and steel imports. The country has unveiled its plan today (23rd of March, 2018) to consider a 15 per cent tariff on US products including dried fruit, wine, and steel pipes, and 25 per cent on pork products and recycled aluminium, said the commerce ministry in a statement on its website. The ministry further added that China has made a list of 128 US products in total that could be targeted, unless both the countries come to a mutual agreement on trade issues. This, they say, will implement in two stages: first the 15 per cent tariff on 120 products including pipes and wine worth $977 million and later, the 25 per cent tariff on pork and...
According to a BBC update, the European Union (EU) and six other countries will be exempt from steel and aluminium tariffs announced by President Trump, for the time being. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced Mr Trump’s decision to "pause" the import duties temporarily for these countries to a Senate panel. The 25% and 10% tariffs on steel and aluminium are due to come into effect on Friday March 23. Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and South Korea are the other countries that are in the exemption list. "There are countries with whom we're negotiating and the question becomes the obvious one that you think, as a matter of business, how does this work?” "So what he has decided to do is to pause the imposition of the tariffs with respect to those countries," he...
Chinese aluminium giant Chalco increased net profit by 274 percent in 2017 compared to last year mainly due to higher aluminium prices. The company posted net income of 1.38 billion yuan in 2017, from net profit of 368.4 million yuan in 2016. The company said in a filing to the Shanghai stock exchange that it generated revenue of 180.1 billion yuan, up from 144.2 billion yuan a year earlier, according to a report published by Reuters. Chalco’s net profit decreased to 38.9 million yuan in the fourth quarter of 2017, from 599.1 million yuan in the previous quarter - its smallest gain since the first quarter of 2016, according to Reuters records. Chalco had posted 1.36 billion yuan in profit in the first nine months of 2017.The company’s revenue rose 52.5 per cent during January- September....
Aluminium remains one of major exports of the United Arab Emirates. In the face of Trump’s 10% global tariff on aluminium, UAE is reeling under fear as the tariff is expected affect a solid portion of its aluminium export. The Emirates’ main aluminium producer is Emirates Global Aluminium (UAE), created by the merger between Dubai Aluminium (DUBAL) and Emirates Aluminium (EMAL) in 2013. EGA turned out a record 2.5 million metric tons of primary aluminium in 2017. The U.A.E. is the United States’ third-most-prolific source of aluminium, after Canada and the Russian Federation. EGA is one of the largest producers of value added products or ‘premium aluminium’. About 80 per cent of EGA’s production is value-added products and it exports 90% of its high purity aluminium and aluminium alloys...
Vedanta has proposed to invest INR 12.4 billion on its Jharsuguda unit (Odisha) to elevate the capacity of aluminium smelter from 1.6 million tonnes to 1.8 million tonnes per annum. The proposal underwent a scrutiny of the State Level Single Window Clearance Authority (SLSWCA) yesterday (March 22, 2018). After a round of scrutiny by SLSWCA, the proposal is now referred to a higher body, the High Level Clearance Authority (HLCA) for an approval, since the former is entitled to approve an investment proposal of up to INR 10 billion only. An investment proposal presented by diversified conglomerate ITC Ltd. for expanding a product line at its existing unit Khurda at a cost of INR 630 million envisioning creating an employment for 100 heads, along with a proposal by wires and cables...
2017 was a year of significant change for the global aluminium market. The Chinese government initiated its aluminium supply-side reform policy, which we expect will limit long run primary capacity growth in China. The year also saw barriers to Chinese exports rise, particularly in the US. Limited production growth in China and low inventory levels outside of China, combined with strong consumption growth means smelters need to be built outside of China. But where will these new smelters be constructed? And who will build them? Russia to add the largest share of capacity outside China CRU has incorporated a number of greenfield and brownfield smelter expansions into our long term output forecasts. Although we still expect China to account for majority of the new smelting capacity, a large...
Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased to close at US$2059 per tonne on Thursday, March 22, up from the previous day’s close at US$ 2056.5 per tonne. According to SMM, increasing US trade protectionism dragged aluminium prices down, with LME aluminium falling to lows of $2,063 per tonne. SMM expects LME aluminium to weaken and trade at $2,050-2,090 per tonne. As on March 22, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2057 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2059 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2078 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2079 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2123 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2128 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1279025 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at...
After a gain on Tuesday to US$ 2073 per tonne, LME aluminium resumed its downward trends and closed at US$ 2056.5 per tonne on Wednesday 21 March. As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium met resistance at the 10-day moving average and lacked strong support overnight. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,065-2,095 per tonne today. As on March 21, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2056 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2056.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2078 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2079 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2127 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2132 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to1283025 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1049625 tonnes, and Cancelled...
Rio Tinto has asked Swiss investment bank UBS to explore a possible public listing of its Pacific Aluminium smelting business on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), two industry sources said on Friday. The mining group has tried to sell the division many times without success, including in 2017, when it added two alumina refineries in Australia to the portfolio to make it more appealing, the sources said. The addition of QAL and Yarwun alumina refineries, however, doubled the $1 billion price tag and interest waned, they added. “Rio Tinto wasn’t satisfied with the level of the offers, so they decided to appoint UBS to try and do an IPO,” one of the sources said. “There were three bidders left at the end of the process: U.S. producer Century Aluminium, private equity firm Apollo...
After China and Russia, UAE holds a significant position as an aluminium exporter to the US. Being the third largest exporter, the nation is now seeking an exemption from the new aluminium, steel tariffs imposed by the Trump government on imported aluminium and steel. Countries like Bahrain, New Zealand, and Japan have already been asking for an exemption and now UAE joins them. A senior government official reported on Tuesday that UAE is asking Washington for an exemption from the tariffs and believes that it should be granted sooner or later. Since the United States has exempted its neighbouring countries Canada and Mexico and ready to exclude some of its allies too from the imposition of the tariffs, which levy 10 per cent on aluminium and 25 per cent on steel, UAE is hoping high for...
China, being one of the most aspiring aluminium producers, targets new highs every year; while this year is no exception either. As reported by Platts, China’s Yunnan Aluminium has declared on Monday that it is aiming at producing 1.4 million tonnes of aluminium in the year 2018, up by 65.1 per cent as compared to the realized output in the prior year. This high target is particularly in reverence to the ramp-up of the newly commissioned expansion project. While the alumina and aluminium semi-producer secured a 3.4 per cent year-on-year hike in 2017, alumina output registered 847,800 tonnes in its annual report, filed to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on Monday. It is believed that the company’s commencement of its trial production of 600,000 tonnes per year second phase alumina capacity...
Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased further to close at US$2073 per tonne on Tuesday, March 20, up from the previous day’s close at US$2070.5 per tonne. LME aluminium continued to consolidate and is expected to trade at US$2,070-2,095 per tonne today, according to SMM. The Federal Reserve’s decision on an interest rate hike will give more guidance to the market. As on March 20, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2072 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2073 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2093 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2093.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2142 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2147 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1288675 tonnes. Live Warrants...
Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay producers premiums for supplies of the metal during the second quarter that are 25 percent higher than the first quarter, reflecting surging spot premiums in the United States, five sources directly involved in the quarterly pricing talks said. The two sides agreed to a premium PREM-ALUM-JP of $129 per tonne for metal to be shipped during the April to June quarter, up from $103 in the first quarter. The premium is the highest in three years and marks the second consecutive quarterly rise. Japan is Asia’s biggest aluminium importer and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. The latest negotiations began last month between Japanese...
The imposition of 10 per cent tariff on import of aluminium into the USA would not have any major impact on the current dynamics of the global aluminium industry, according to rating agency Icra. This is primarily due to the fact that the global market is currently in a deficit, following key regulatory steps taken by the Chinese Government to curb production from its polluting and “illegal” aluminium smelters. Hence, the world, outside the USA, can absorb the aluminium metal, which is currently being exported from the countries that are going to be impacted by the tariff. The expectation, however, does not take into account the impact of retaliatory trade measure, if any that may be taken by affected countries against the USA. Says Jayanta Roy, senior vice president and group head,...
There is already a long queue of companies and associations in US, urging the government to withhold steel, aluminium tariff plans on China. In a very recent time, Forty-five US trade associations, representing some of the largest companies in the country, have also joined the queue and signed a petition to Trump administration to halt plans to levy tariffs on China. They even urge in the petition to President Trump to join hands with other nations and press Beijing to end restrictions on foreign firms. This petition is signed after a careful analysis that the imposition of steel, aluminium tariffs on China may particularly harm the US economy and consumers. Forty-five US trade associations have also warned the President in the letter about the adverse effect on financial markets, a price...
Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange increased further to close at US$2070.5 per tonne on Monday, March 19, up from the previous day’s close at US$2069 per tonne. According to SMM, there will be limited downward room for the US dollar if interest rates increase. This may give little support to LME aluminium to stand firmly at the $2,100 per tonne level. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,075-2,100 per tonne today. As on March 19, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2070 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2070.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2090 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2092 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2138 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2143 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock...
Iran produced over 309,007 tonnes of aluminium ingots in the first eleven months of the current Iranian year (March 20-Feb. 20), according to the data released by the Iranian Mines and Mining Industries Development and Renovation Organization (IMIDRO). Iran has been following a downward pattern for aluminium export in last three years. It is estimated that the export of aluminium by Iran to decline in both value and volume in 2018.Top importers who have been buying aluminium from Iran include Turkey, China, South Korea, Netherlands and India (2017 data). As shown in the data, Iran exported an estimated 85185 tonnes of aluminium in 2017, down from 99013 tonnes in 2016. For 2018, the aluminium export by Iran is estimated to be about 77568 tonnes. The revenue from aluminium export was US$...
