1. Macro perspective The US-Iran conflict entered its second week. After the escort coalition intervened, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered, but war risk insurance rates remained elevated. Brent crude pulled back from a high of USD 101 to consolidate around USD 95, with energy cost support weakening from earlier levels but not yet fading. The US Fed delivered a 25bp rate hike at its September FOMC meeting, and the dot plot indicated one more hike may still occur this year. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his post-meeting remarks, and the US dollar index held at a 13-month high. Next week, attention turns to China's official PMI on September 30, as well as US PCE and non-farm payrolls data during the National Day holiday—with China's market closed for seven days...
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's total primary aluminium imports reached 185,500 tonnes in August 2026, down 14.65 per cent year-on-year but up 0.16 per cent month-on-month. Total imports for January-August amounted to 1.66 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.41 per cent year-on-year. The 14.65 per cent year-on-year decline in August imports, coupled with a nearly flat month-on-month performance, indicates that imports have not collapsed but rather maintained a steady inflow. In August, China's total primary aluminium exports stood at 21,900 tonnes, down 14.53 per cent year-on-year and 30.48 per cent month-on-month. Cumulative exports for January-August totalled 167,500 tonnes, up 9.26 per cent year-on-year....
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LME aluminium shows some positive gain after a drop last Friday. LME aluminium closed at US$2069 per tonne on Friday March 16, up from US$2062 per tonne on Thursday March 15. LME aluminium gradually fell with resistance at the $2,100 per tonne level, according to Shanghai Metals Market. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,075-2,095 per tonne. As on March 16, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2068 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2069 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2088 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2088.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2138 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2143 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1306150 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1058650 tonnes, and Cancelled...
We have already celebrated aluminium’s performance as one of the best performing industrial metals of 2017 with significant gains in benchmark traded prices. The positive turnaround of 2017 has influenced the entire value chain along with its equipment and technology suppliers and allied industries and built a strong foundation for constructive growth in 2018. With this edition, we are analysing how the significant developments of 2017 are shaping up the industry value chain in 2018. AlCircle Aluminium Industry Outlook 2018 looks at the current market situation and aims to analyse the way aluminium value chain is expected to grow this year. We are touching upon the factors like the world aluminium capacity, demand & supply of the major raw materials, price movements; China’s capacity cut...
China's winter heating season ended on Thursday February 15 with less than expected results. China's aluminium production fell 1.8 per cent in January-February from a year earlier, as the country's pollution crackdown and supply-side reform kicked in. However, an estimated 4.4 million tonnes of new capacity are expected to be online in 2018. Stocks of aluminium have grown noticeably in last two months creating fears of subdued demand and a supply glut. Though downstream demands are expected to pick in April, the market is still sluggish with no sign of price improvement. Input costs have also dropped considerably in recent times. Amidst the tension of trade war and climbing capacity, domestic aluminium ingot prices are hovering at the lowest since 2016. Average A00 Aluminum Ingot prices...
Continuing with its downward pressure, London aluminium plummeted to its lowest since late December on Thursday on expectations of a supply gut as China's winter pollution controls expire, as the winter cuts did not have a substantial effect on China’s mounting inventory. Metal prices also came under pressure amid mounting investor concerns that growing trade tensions would hurt the equilibrium in the global economy. According to SMM, as exports from China increased and the US dollar strengthened, LME aluminium saw weaker performance than its SHFE counterpart. LME aluminium finally closed at US$2062 per tonne on Thursday March 15 and expected to trade at $2,075-2,100 per tonne today. As updated by Reuters, London Metal Exchange aluminium was trading flat at $2,089 a tonne by 0728 GMT,...
The winter heating season and capacity cut deadline ends today on Thursday March 15. Aluminium smelters in 28 northern Chinese cities had been told to reduce output by at least 30 percent from Nov. 15 to March 15, although the actual volume cut was below expectations, putting pressure on prices. Stocks of aluminium have grown noticeably so far in 2018, which is indicating subdued demand and already giving rise to concerns about excessive supply. Average A00 Aluminum Ingot prices are showing a temporary restraint at RMB 13,740 per tonne today. The prices are expected to range within RMB 13,720 to RMB 13,760 per tonne and spot discounts are expected to settle at RMB 70 to 30 per tonne or about RMB 50 from RMB 350 in February. The narrowing discount between cash SHFE and physical prices of...
After closing lower at US$ 2080 per tonne on Tuesday 13 March, LME aluminium showed some positive gain and crept up to US$2096 per tonne on Wednesday March 14. With the dropping of euro and the rebound of US dollar index to around 89.7 overnight, most base metals climbed up yesterday. As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium met resistance at the five-day moving average and support at $2,100 per tonne last night. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,080-2,105 per tonne today. As on March 14, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2095.50per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2096 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2115 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2117 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2165 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price...
Bahrain is hoping it will be granted an exemption from U.S. tariffs on foreign-made aluminium and steel. American Chamber of Commerce Bahrain President, Qays H. Zu'bi said Bahrain is a key strategic ally of the United States and will be given due consideration for an exemption from these measures. “Aluminium is Bahrain’s top export to the US, representing 61pc of all goods exported from Bahrain to the US in 2017,” said Qays Zu’bi. “This is significant to Bahrain’s economy, but is considered a very small percentage of the total aluminium imported by the US worldwide.” "We remain optimistic that Bahrain, being a key strategic ally of the US and a host to the US Fifth Fleet, as well as beneficiary of the US-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement will be given due consideration for an exemption on the...
China aluminium prices continue downward trends with temporary signs of restraint. As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, today’s average A00 ingot price stands at RMB 13,720 per tonne and is expected to trade in a range of RMB 13700 – 13740 per tonne with a discount of RMB 90-50 per tonne. This registers a moderate gain from yesterday’s closing. Prices will continue to face downward pressure in the short term unless there is support from downstream demand or inventories drop with more stocks moving to the market. Primary ingot prices registered slight gains ranging from RMB 5 to 45 per tonne across all domestic markets. Primary ingot prices remain the highest in South China market. Aluminium alloy prices also remain unchanged today after a period of steady fall. On the cost side alumina...
After a modest gain on Monday to US$ 2097 per tonne, LME aluminium resumed its downward trends and closed at US$ 2080 per tonne on Tuesday 13 March. As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium met resistance at the five-day moving average and support at $2,100 per tonne last night. SMM expects the contract to trade at US$2,095-2,115 per tonne today. As on March 13, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2079.50per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2080 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2100 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2101 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2155 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2160 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1301700 tonnes with the moving of stocks in the Asian warehouses...
Spurred on by hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump’s 10-percent aluminium tariffs will usher in a better landscape for the production and sale of primary aluminium, the shuttered smelter formerly owned by Noranda Aluminium in the bootheel region of Missouri announced on Friday the restart of two of its three idled potlines. Magnitude 7 Metals LLC (M7M) said that it has begun to revive both potlines, with the first likely to begin production this spring and the second following on its heels this summer. “M7M hopes to soon be in a position to expand its restart plans to cover additional primary production capacity and/or downstream operations at the smelter site, with significant additional employment levels included.” Though no numbers were given by M7M, a local state senator announced...
Some Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay a premium of $129 per tonne for shipments from global producers in the April to June quarter, reflecting soaring U.S. spot premiums, two sources directly involved in the pricing talks said on Monday. The new premium is 25 percent higher than the $103 per tonne premiums PREM-ALUM-JP in the current quarter. The premium is the highest in three years and marks the second quarterly increase in a row. Japan is Asia’s biggest importer of aluminium and the premiums for primary metal shipments it agrees to pay each quarter over the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash price set the benchmark for the region. The quarterly pricing negotiations began last month between Japanese buyers and global producers, including Alcoa Corp , Rio Tinto and South32 Ltd,...
LME aluminium continued falling through last week and closed with USD 2078.5 per tonne on Friday. However, the contract stayed firm above $2,100 per tonne over the weekend due to strong data from US non-farm payrolls. The LME aluminium contract gained higher to close at US$ 2097 per tonne on March 13. It is still the lowest in almost three months. According to Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium is expected to test the US$2,100 per tonne level and trade at US$2,085-2,110 per tonne today. As on March 12, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2096.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2097per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2117 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2118 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2168 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is...
The U.S. President Donald Trump has granted Australia an exemption from its new tariffs following discussions with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. Turnbull said Australia will not join an international protest against the U.S. over aluminium and steel tariffs. "Spoke to PM of Australia. He is committed to having a very fair and reciprocal military and trade relationship. Working very quickly on a security agreement so we don’t have to impose steel or aluminium (sic) tariffs on our ally, the great nation of Australia!,” Trump said on Twitter. Trump has already exempted Canada and Mexico from the new import tariff till the three countries decide on North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). "Great discussion today on security and trade. Australia/US trade is fair & reciprocal...
As updated by Shanghai Metals Market, spot aluminium fell to RMB 13,800 per tonne on Monday March 12. SMM updates today’s average A00 ingot price stands at RMB 13,810 per tonne and is expected to trade in a range of RMB 13790 – 13830 per tonne today with a discount of RMB 100-80 per tonne. Primary ingot prices registered a drop of RMB 120 to 170 per tonne across all domestic markets. Trading was active in the east China physical market but thin in the Guangdong market, SMM learned. In Shanghai and Wuxi, SHFE 1803 contracts were traded at RMB 13,800-13,820 per tonne with spot discounts of RMB 100-90 per tonne. Trades in Hangzhou were seen at RMB 13,810-13,830 while those in Guangdong were seen at RMB 13,850-13,860 per tonne. The difference in prices between Shanghai and Guangdong hovered...
LME aluminium continued falling closing the week with USD 2078.5 per tonne, down from USD 2082.5 per tonne the day before. The contract stayed firm above $2,100 per tonne over the weekend due to strong data from US non-farm payrolls. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to test the five-day moving average and trade at US$2,110-2,135 per tonne today. As on March 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2078 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2078.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2098.50per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2099 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2148 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2153 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1311725 tonnes with the moving of stocks in the Asian warehouses after the...
Major Asian nations have expressed strong concern and reaction to U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports on Friday. They feared the tariffs will damage global trade relations and urged for a unified call for retaliation. President Donald Trump has signed proclamation imposing 10 per cent tariff on aluminium and 25 per cent levy on steel on Thursday. The new tariffs will go into effect in 15 days. The move is likely to face retaliation from its major trading partners, though he announced exemptions for Canada and Mexico, and said exceptions could also be made for other allies. China's commerce ministry published a statement saying that it "resolutely opposed" a move by Trump to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports and urged the U.S....
The US dollar rebounded above 90 overnight, while base metals saw mixed trading. LME aluminium is struggling under increasing downward pressure and closed further down at US$ 2082.50 per tonne on March 8. However, the contract inched up and received support at US$2,100 per tonne overnight. Shanghai Metals Market expects the contract to trade at US$2,095-2,120 per tonne. As on March 8, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2082 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2082.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2103.50per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2104 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2150 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2155 per tonne. The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1315500 tonnes, Live Warrants totalled at 1080625...
Ning Jizhe, the VC of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has recently announced that China will continue to cut aluminium capacity in 2018, and it would be market-based, standard, and prevent rule violations. This indicates the supply side reforms and environmental cuts would repeat in 2018, though not specific policy has been announced. The recently published data from China Customs show China's exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products dropped to 372,000 tonnes in February from 445,000 tonnes in January. On the other hand in the first two months of 2018, China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and products rose 26% to 817,000 tonnes. February drop is also partially due to the Chinese New year holidays. The rise in aluminium shipments in Jan-Feb suggested...
