A challenging outlook has been set out by Molson Coors, which warned that annual profits are likely to fall sharply. The brewer pointed to rising aluminium tariffs and cautious spending among price-sensitive consumers as significant pressures on its business.

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The announcement unsettled investors, with shares dropping by around 6 per cent in after-hours trading. The decline followed the company’s fourth-quarter revenue coming in below market expectations.

Looking ahead to 2026, the maker of its flagship beers, including Miller Lite, expects adjusted earnings per share to decline by 11-15 per cent.  This stands in stark contrast to analysts’ forecasts of a 1.9 per cent increase to USD 5.48 per share by LSEG.

The subdued forecast arrives as recently appointed Rahul Goyal, President and CEO, works to stabilise the business after a difficult 2025. Weak demand for beer since last year, declining sales volumes and persistent inflationary pressures. Goyal has placed a renewed emphasis on cost control as part of efforts to reposition the company for longer-term stability.

Broader shifts in consumer behaviour are also weighing on performance. Demand for alcohol has declined as more health-conscious consumers opt for non-alcoholic alternatives and energy drinks. The growing popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss medications has further accelerated this trend. Younger consumers, particularly those in Generation Z, are increasingly reducing their intake of both spirits and beef.

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Cost pressures have increased as well. A surge in the US Midwest aluminium premium contributed to an 8.1 per cent increase in the cost of goods sold per hectolitre. The impact is particularly pronounced for Molson Coors, given its heavy reliance on aluminium cans for packaging.

CFO Tracey Joubert cautioned that commodity inflation will continue to weigh heavily on profitability in 2026, even though revenue trends are expected to show some improvement. Speaking at an industry conference on Wednesday, company executives indicated that aluminium costs alone could reduce profits by approximately USD 125 million.

For 2026, net sales are forecast to range between a 1 per cent decline and a 1 per cent increase compared with the previous year. Analysts had anticipated a marginal 0.1 per cent drop.

In the fourth quarter ended 31 December, net sales totalled USD 2.66 billion, falling short of analysts’ expectations of USD 2.71 billion. However, underlying earnings came in at USD 1.21 per share, ahead of estimates of USD 1.16 per share.

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