Module deliveries support near-term frame demand; Aluminium prices under pressure amid post-holiday inventory buildup and demand weakening risks

PV aluminium extrusion: This week, operating rates at sampled PV frame enterprises remained broadly stable. Some PV frame enterprises in Hebei and Anhui reported that their October production schedules were basically flat versus September. During the National Day holiday, production lines will run normally to ensure on-time delivery of early-October orders, extending the pre-holiday rush to meet delivery deadlines. From the downstream module side, October module scheduled production is expected to see limited M-o-M change.

With centralised projects gradually requiring delivery and growth in new overseas orders, total module production is expected to rebound slightly, and demand for PV frame support remains intact in the near term. Overall, the October delivery window provides phased support for frame enterprises' operating rates, which are expected to remain stable in the short term. In the medium term, demand is expected to weaken marginally after the module delivery season ends, limiting upside for frame operating rates.

Raw material prices: During the period (2026.9.28-2026.9.30), the SMM A00 weekly average price stood at RMB 24,103.3 per tonne, down 0.7 per cent from the previous week. Overall, macro sentiment remained bearish. On fundamentals, aluminium ingot inventory is expected to see a slight buildup shortly after the holiday, processing fees for some downstream products still face downside risk, and ingot casting expectations have risen further.

With inventory buildup and near-term demand weakness, aluminium prices face pressure on the upside; meanwhile, social inventory of aluminium ingot has gradually destocked to normal levels, limiting downside. The most-traded SHFE aluminium contract is expected to trade in the range of RMB 23,300-24,300 per tonne in the week after the holiday; LME aluminium is expected to trade in the range of USD 3,150-3,250 per tonne. Going forward, close attention should be paid to China's aluminium semis exports and operating rates at aluminium rod and aluminium billet producers.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.