21 JUNE 2011Aluminium International Today
ME alumina demand to rise to 22Mt/y by 2030
Edited by : AL CIRCLE
2 min read
Middle East alumina demand will rise to 22Mt/y by 2030, delegates at CRU’s 16th World Aluminium Conference in Barcelona heard.
BHP Billiton vice president of strategy and business- aluminium, Konrad von Szczepanski, outlined the challenges facing the industry in a presentation titled The Longer-term View: Challenges and opportunities beyond 2015.
He said in the last 10 years aluminium production had doubled from 24Mt in 2000 to 42Mt in 2010, with China contributing 41% of it. Similarly alumina refining has also risen from 48Mt to 84Mt (2000-2010), with China making up 37% of it. He asked: Will a similar pattern continue in the next 10 years?
China will need to manage its energy reserves if it is to maintain its economic growth. Power tariff varies between $50/MWh and $90/MWh in China, more than the global average.
Middle East smelting is expected to grow, the region accounts for 40% of first quartile capacity today, 60% of which was built last decade. Alumina demand will grow from 6Mt in 2010 to 14Mt/y in 2020 and 22Mt/y by 2030. The quality of Chinese bauxite will decline so the country will require more imports, putting pressure on capital and operating costs. Atlantic refineries will incur higher operating costs due to oil prices, labour costs and the dependency on imported bauxite.
New alumina capacity will be required. Latin America and Australia will be in a long position by 2020 but rest of the world will be in a short position.
BHP Billiton vice president of strategy and business- aluminium, Konrad von Szczepanski, outlined the challenges facing the industry in a presentation titled The Longer-term View: Challenges and opportunities beyond 2015.
He said in the last 10 years aluminium production had doubled from 24Mt in 2000 to 42Mt in 2010, with China contributing 41% of it. Similarly alumina refining has also risen from 48Mt to 84Mt (2000-2010), with China making up 37% of it. He asked: Will a similar pattern continue in the next 10 years?
China will need to manage its energy reserves if it is to maintain its economic growth. Power tariff varies between $50/MWh and $90/MWh in China, more than the global average.
Middle East smelting is expected to grow, the region accounts for 40% of first quartile capacity today, 60% of which was built last decade. Alumina demand will grow from 6Mt in 2010 to 14Mt/y in 2020 and 22Mt/y by 2030. The quality of Chinese bauxite will decline so the country will require more imports, putting pressure on capital and operating costs. Atlantic refineries will incur higher operating costs due to oil prices, labour costs and the dependency on imported bauxite.
New alumina capacity will be required. Latin America and Australia will be in a long position by 2020 but rest of the world will be in a short position.
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