
The US dollar index fell 0.05% to close at 94.58 with pressure from a stronger euro, which was buoyed by robust German economic data. LME base metals rose across the board overnight.
After closing yesterday’s trading lower at US$ 2082 per tonne, LME aluminium rallied twice, and hit a high of US$2,114 per tonne as the US dollar weakened during night trading. LME inventory increased 2,850 tonnes to 1,212,125 tonnes overnight. As the probability for the US to lift its sanction against Rusal increases, LME inventory is likely to pile up further in the near term as the panic buying has saturated . The contract will feel pressure at the US$2,100 tonne level, and the contract is expected to trade at US$2,065-2,100 per tonne today.
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As on July 24, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2080 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2082 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2096 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2097 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2147 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2152 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1212125 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 963050 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 249075 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2056 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2089 per tonne on July 25, from US$ 2074 per tonne on July 24.
The SHFE 1809 contract hovered around RMB 14,285 per tonne within a narrow range in the morning yesterday and initially hit a session-high of RMB 14,380 per tonne in the afternoon as longs entered the market. The trading level of the contract climbed after it closed higher for the second consecutive day. The contract is expected to trade at RMB 14,350-14,500 per tonne, with capital inflows. However, the upward momentum may not last long. Spot discounts are expected at RMB 100-60 per tonne today.
Key factors to watch today will be the US weekly crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API).
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