
The US dollar index strengthened further and closed at 95.35 overnight as investors bet that trade wars and a robust US economy would continue to drive the currency higher. Base metals closed mixed overnight. LME aluminium rose over 1% after closing the day’s trading at US$ 2000.50 per tonne, further down from last closing. Strong performance of SHFE also bolstered LME aluminium, which rebounded and closed at US$2,053 per tonne on Monday night. Shanghai Metals Market expects the LME aluminium to trade at US$2,040-2,060 per tonne today.

As on August 7, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2000 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2000.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2027 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2028 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2083 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2088 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1177550 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 840475 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 337075 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2027.47per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped slightly to US$ 2085 per tonne on August 7, from US$ 2093 per tonne on August 6.
The SHFE 1809 contract rallied twice to highs around RMB 14,455 per tonne in Monday morning but fell sharply below the daily moving average in the afternoon. With support at the 10-day moving average, it rebounded to close higher at RMB 14,395 per tonne. As investors added their long bets, the most-traded aluminium contract on the SHFE rose to a high of RMB 14,485 per tonne and closed at RMB 14,475 per tonne overnight. SMM sees upward momentum for SHFE aluminium in anticipation of winter production cuts and rising prebaked anode prices. Price is also supported by falling inventory across and solid consumption. We expect the SHFE 1810 contract to trade at RMB 14,400-14,550 per tonne with spot discounts at RMB 70-30 per tonne.
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