
The US dollar index gained 0.66% to close at 94.72 as its inflation data came in stronger than expected. LME aluminium closed Thursday’s trading at US$ 2120.5 per tonne, down from US$ 2140 per tonne in last closing. LME aluminium rebounded to a high of US$2,086 per tonne during the European trading session as market concerns over a trade war eased. However, it met resistance at the closing level on Tuesday, and inched down to close at US$2,060.5 per tonne. We see it hovering weakly at US$2,045-2,075 per tonne today.

As on July 11, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2120 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2120.50per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2078 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2079 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2133per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2138 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1120525 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 938250 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 182275 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2061per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2089 per tonne on July 12 from US$ 2074 per tonne on July 11.
As shorts significantly added their positions, the SHFE 1809 contract slumped to a low of RMB 13,865 per tonne yesterday before it recovered some losses. The contract touched a high of RMB 14,135 per tonne today morning as its LME counterpart rebounded and as shorts exited. The SHFE/LME aluminium price ratio rose to 6.85 as LME inventories grew. SMM expects the contract to trade at RMB 14,030-14,230 per tonne today with spot offers at a discount of RMB 30 per tonne to a premium of RMB 10 per tonne.
Aluminium was less vulnerable than other nonferrous metals because of tight bauxite supply and higher alumina prices. The nonferrous complex is likely to recover some losses in the short term if there are no significant economic and political developments
Market anxiety continued to ramp up after the Trump administration started the process of imposing tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports from China. The US consumer price index (CPI) in June and its weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits are the key factors to watch today.
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