LME aluminum settled down USD 6.5/mt or 0.33% at USD 1,953.5/mt

Italian and Spanish debt yields climbed. Greek stocks prices jumped before the Greek election. US CPI and employment data disappointed, dragging the US dollar index below 82. LME aluminum opened at USD 1,960/mt during Asian trading and climbed slightly, shortly breaking through the 5-day moving average and fell back. It settled down USD 6.5/mt or 0.33% at the 2-year low USD 1,953.5/mt. Transacted contracts increased a slight 1,978 lots to 8,929 lots. Total positions dropped 3,518 lots to 734,822 lots. LME aluminum stocks surged 25,800 mt overnight to 4,860,925 mt. LME aluminum opened slightly higher this morning and SHFE aluminum is expected to see a slight rebound and stay within ranges.

The Greek election is near. Surging Greek stocks prices overnight also boosted confidence in European and US equity markets. The US dollar index dipped below 82 due to weak economic data. Risk aversion is still strong though, and will continue to limit the moving band of LME aluminum prices to USD 1,950-1,970/mt. The most active SHFE aluminum contract is expected to open slightly higher at RMB 15,880/mt supported by LME aluminum performance and hover within a narrow range later. Pressure at the 10-day moving average has yet to be tested. Its trading band should be RMB 15,850-15,900/mt. Spot aluminum prices should continue to struggle near RMB 15,900/mt. Both premiums and discounts should stay within RMB 20/mt.