LME aluminium remains fairly unchanged; likely to hover at lows due to a stronger dollar

LME aluminium has slowed down on its uptrend. The light metal contract which closed at US$2,116 per tonne last Tuesday, September 26, inched higher to close at US$2,117 per tonne on Wednesday, September 27. Technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may move within US$2,120-2,140 per tonne on Thursday, September 28, meeting resistance at the 10-day moving average and testing support at the 20-day moving average due to a strong US dollar.

As on September 27, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,116.50 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,117 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,139.50 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,148 per tonne, Dec3 Bid Price is US$2,250 per tonne, and Dec3 Offer Price is US$2,255 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at 1280100 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1006475 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 273625 tonnes.

As on September 26, discount of LME spot aluminium against three-month futures aluminium was US$25.25 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has fallen from US$2,454 per tonne on Wednesday, September 27 to US$2,436 per tonne on Thursday, September 28.

During Wednesday’s night trading, all base metals at Shanghai Futures Exchange finished lower as the US dollar index rose. SMM predicts that the prices will keep diverging. The most active contract on the bourse SHFE 1711 aluminium fell sharply as risk aversion sentiment prevailed. The contract is expected to trade in the range of RMB 16,200-16,500 per tonne on Thursday, September 28.

In east China spot aluminium market, spot discounts are expected to range at RMB 210-170 per tonne over SHFE 1710 aluminium.