
The US dollar index softened and closed at 95.165 on Tuesday as the Chinese yuan showed more stability after the country’s central bank on Friday raised the cost of shorting the currency. LME base metals, except for aluminium, rose across the board on Tuesday. The contract closed Tuesday’s trading at US$ 2026.5 per tonne. With a weaker SHFE counterpart, LME aluminium shed early gains and touched a low of US$2,032.5 per tonne on Tuesday night. It is likely to trade at US$2,035-2,055 per tonne today.

As on August 7, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2026 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2026.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2052.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2053 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2108 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2113 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1170300 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 835875 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 334425 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2044.10per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased slightly to US$ 2095 per tonne on August 8, from US$ 2085 per tonne on August 7.
The SHFE 1809 hovered around the five-day moving average after it fell to a low of RMB 14,400 per tonne on Tuesday after opening. The dominant contract moved to the SHFE 1810, which followed a similar movement from the 1809 contract. With much upward momentum, the 1810 contract inched up from August 6 to close at RMB 14,490 per tonne testing pressure at the 60-day moving average. The SHFE 1810 contract extended its daytime losses to a new low of RMB 14,360 per tonne overnight. Strong resistance is seen while support will be the anticipated winter production cuts and the rising costs. We expect the contract to remain rangebound at RMB 14,350-14,500 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 50-10 per tonne.
Key things to watch today include China’s trade balance in July, US weekly crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin’s speech.
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