
The US dollar index jumped to 96.26, the highest since January 4, after data showed that economic growth in Germany slowed in 2018. The pound increased against the euro and the US dollar as the British parliament voted against Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal. Base metals closed mixed as LME aluminium rose over 1%. SHFE aluminium grew over 0.6%.
LME aluminium found technical support overnight after five consecutive falls. The contract recovered some gains when it closed at US$ 1810.5 per tonne on January 15 Tuesday. It later closed some 1% higher at US$1,851 per tonne with the highest level overnight at US$1,862 per tonne. It is likely to trade at US$1,845-1,870 per tonne today.
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As on January 15, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1810 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1810.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1836 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1836.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 1983 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 1988 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 1295750 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1060275 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 235475 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1830 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 1967 per tonne today from US$ 1949 per tonne on January 14.
The SHFE 1903 contract recovered overnight losses and ended the trading day slightly lower at RMB 13,315 per tonne yesterday. The contract closed higher than opening for the first time in four consecutive trading days. The SHFE 1901 contract ended trading with 88,525 tonnes being delivered. The SHFE 1902 contract rebounded to a high of RMB 13,365 per tonne overnight as longs entered. We expect it to return to around RMB 13,500 per tonne in the short run. Today, it will trade within RMB13,340-13,450 per tonne with spot discounts at RMB 60-20 per tonne. The SHFE 1903 contract is unlikely to see substantial gains in the short term given weak fundamentals.
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