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16 MARCH 2018 AL CIRCLE

LME aluminium plummets on the back of rising US dollar and climbing inventory

EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 2MINS READ

Continuing with its downward pressure, London aluminium plummeted to its lowest since late December on Thursday on expectations of a supply gut as China's winter pollution controls expire, as the winter cuts did not have a substantial effect on China’s mounting inventory.  Metal prices also came under pressure amid mounting investor concerns that growing trade tensions would hurt the equilibrium in the global economy.  According to SMM, as exports from China increased and the US dollar strengthened, LME aluminium saw weaker performance than its SHFE counterpart. LME aluminium finally closed at US$2062 per tonne on Thursday March 15 and expected to trade at $2,075-2,100 per tonne today. 

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As updated by Reuters, London Metal Exchange aluminium was trading flat at $2,089 a tonne by 0728 GMT, having slipped to its weakest since Dec. 19 at $2,087 on Wednesday.  Support is seen at the 200-day moving average at $2,083, a break of which could pull it up further.

As on March 15, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2062 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2062.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2085 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2086 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2137 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2142 per tonne.

The LME aluminium opening stock has increased to 1311900 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1075725 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 236175 tonne.

LME aluminium 3-months ABR price is hovering at US$ 2092.59 per tonne. 

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped slightly from US$ 2178 per tonne on March 15 to US$ 2171 per tonne on March 16, while the market is worried over growing inventory and trade tensions between China and the U.S.

As inputs costs decline and inventories accumulate, according to SMM; SHFE contract continues to hover around low at the five-day moving average at RMB 14,000 per tonne, with a trading range of RMB 13,900-14,050 per tonne. Spot discounts have widened to RMB 200-160 per tonne. In the medium term, SMM advises monitoring of downstream demand as it recovers. Recovery is expected to surge in early April.

The US dollar returned to stand above 90, following remarks from President Donald Trump's newly-appointed top economic advisor Larry Kudlow. Base metals are expected to edge down in the short term with resistance from a stronger US dollar and a potential trade war.


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EDITED BY : BEETHIKA BISWAS 2MINS READ

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