LME aluminium heads down; near-term outlook negative, analysts opine

LME aluminium slid further down. With the price support from two of aluminium’s key raw materials coal and alumina weakening, the light metal is unable to reverse the downtrend, even when aluminium stocks in LME warehouses are declining. On the other hand, demand growth has slowed down. All these factors are expected to weigh on LME aluminium prices in the near term.   

As on November 21, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$2,060 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$2,062 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$2,078 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$2,080 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$2,125 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$2,130 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock or the LME aluminium inventory level stands at 1141700 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 908175 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 233525 tonnes.   

Spot price against 3-month LME aluminium futures price was US$16.5 per tonne on November 21, down from US$17.25 per tonne on November 20.         

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange has dropped from US$2,241 per tonne on November 21, to US$2,230 per tonne on November 22.  

In China domestic market, average aluminium price on Shanghai Futures Exchange is wandering at lows. SHFE aluminium price movement as on November 21 is as follows:

Shanghai Metals Market predicts that bears’ closing out in all likelihood will prevent downward tendency of aluminium price in the short term.

“Main contracts of SHFE Aluminium will aim RMB 14,500 per tonne for next stage. Today it is expected to move between RMB 14,750-14,950 per tonne. Premium of spot moves between RMB 130-90 per tonne,” SMM said.