
LME aluminium continued falling through last week and closed with USD 2078.5 per tonne on Friday. However, the contract stayed firm above $2,100 per tonne over the weekend due to strong data from US non-farm payrolls. The LME aluminium contract gained higher to close at US$ 2097 per tonne on March 13. It is still the lowest in almost three months. According to Shanghai Metals Market, LME aluminium is expected to test the US$2,100 per tonne level and trade at US$2,085-2,110 per tonne today.

As on March 12, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2096.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2097per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2117 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2118 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2168 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price is US$ 2173 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock has dropped to 1306400 tonnes with the moving of stocks in the Asian warehouses after the Chinese New Year. Live Warrants totalled at 1058350 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 248050 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months ABR price is hovering at US$ 2109.65per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange fell down from US$2202 per tonne on March 9 to US$ 2183 per tonne on March 12, while the market is abuzz with trade tensions between China and the U.S.
SHFE aluminium remains weak as high social inventories drove more short bets into the market. SHFE aluminium fell to a new low of RMB 14,035 per tonne and closed at RMB 14,065 per tonne yesterday. Aluminium prices fell more than 2 percent on Tuesday, slipping below the 14,000 yuan ($2,213) a tonne mark for the first time since late 2016, just two days before winter capacity cuts to be lifted.The slow recovery of downstream demand also provided support for short bets. SMM sees further downward room in SHFE aluminium until consumption recovers. The contract is expected to trade at RMB 13,830-14,010 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 100-60 per tonne.
The US dollar edged down below 90 due to poor results from the US non-farm payrolls. We expect it to continue to hover at 90 today. Base metals inched up across the board and will continue to trade rangebound with pressure.
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