
The US dollar fell broadly at the start of the week, as currencies battered by trade tensions between the US and China staged a comeback after leaders from the two countries declared a temporary truce on tariffs.
LME base metals ended in the black across the board. Aluminium rose 1.2%. SHFE base metals, however, ended in mixed territory. After closing Monday’s trading at US$ 1982.50 per tonne, LME aluminium started strengthening further at night. Finally the contract slipped to close at US$1,974 per tonne overnight, below the 40-day moving average, after it climbed to a high of US$1,996 per tonne in European trades. We expect it to trade at US$1,950-1,980 per tonne today.
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As on December 3, Monday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1982 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1982.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1978.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1979.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2040 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2040.50 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1048025 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 795400 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 252625 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1976 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 1998 per tonne today from US$ 1973 per tonne on December 3.
The SHFE 1901 contract climbed above five-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages, and tested pressure at the 40-day average to close RMB 210 per tonne higher at RMB 13,810 per tonne yesterday. Investors cutting their shorts pulled up the contract. The SHFE 1902 became the most traded contract and slid to close at RMB 13,795 per tonne overnight as short-term longs took profits after the contract initially climbed. Though the short term outlook is bullish, weak fundamentals would keep SHFE aluminium prices in a bearish outlook in the medium term. We expect the contract to trade at RMB 13,700-13,850 per tonne today with spot discounts of RMB 90-50 per tonne.
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