
The US dollar fell for a third straight day to the lowest in nearly two months against a basket of other currencies on Thursday, as weak US economic data rekindled fears of an economic slowdown and the European Union and the UK striking a Brexit deal.
LME base metals closed higher on Thursday. Aluminium nudged up 0.06%. SHFE aluminium rose 0.4%. Three-month LME aluminium rebounded to a high of US$1,733 per tonne on Thursday, before it eased to end marginally higher at US$1,728.5 per tonne. LME aluminium will struggle to break strong resistance in the short term, and is expected to trade between US$1,720-1,740 per tonne today.
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As on October 17, Thursday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1725 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1726 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1729.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1730 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1813 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1818 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock increased to 979575 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 815225 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 164350 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1724 per tonne.
SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
Benchmark aluminium price for SHFE (Shanghai Future Exchange) has increased to USD 1997 per tonne today, 18 October 2019.
The most-active SHFE December contract continued its rally that began on Tuesday, ending higher for the third straight session by 0.25% on the day at RMB 13,835 per tonne yesterday. The SHFE 1912 contract then advanced 0.4% to end at a one-week high of RMB 13,890 per tonne overnight. Recent gains sent SHFE aluminium above the five- and 10-day moving averages.
SHFE aluminium was boosted by SMM data showing that social inventories of primary aluminium in China dropped over 60,000 tonne this week. The contract is expected to trade between RMB 13,800-13,950 per tonne today, with spot premiums of RMB 30-70 per tonne. SMM retains the view that lower costs and supply recovery, in the long run, may cap the upside room in prices.
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