
The US dollar fell broadly overnight as US Treasury yields slipped. Both LME and SHFE base metals ended in mixed territory overnight. LME aluminium lost 0.2% while SHFE aluminium edged down 0.1%.
LME aluminium closed Tuesday’s trading at US$1985 per tonne and continued to trade higher at night. However, a rebound in the US dollar index forced LME aluminium to reverse its gains made in European trades, to a low of US$1,963 per tonne. LME aluminium ended at US$1,970 per tonne overnight, below the 40-day moving average. We expect it to trade at US$1,960-1,980 per tonne today.
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As on December 4, Tuesday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1984.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1985 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1979.50 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1980.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2038 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2043 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1046275 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 795400 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 250875 tonnes.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1977.36 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 1990 per tonne today from US$ 1998 per tonne on December 4.
The SHFE 1901 contract dipped after opening, to an intraday low of RMB 13,750 per tonne yesterday. It then rebounded to above the daily moving average and closed above the 20-day average at RMB 13,800 per tonne. The SHFE 1901 contract overnight slid through the 20-day moving average to a low of RMB 13,740 per tonne, near the 10-day moving average, after the contract jumped to a high of RMB 13,835 per tonne shortly after the opening bell. The contract regained some losses in later trades and closed at RMB 13,770 per tonne. We expect it to trade at RMB13,700-13,800 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 70-30 per tonne.
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