
LME aluminium is yet to start gaining strength. The light metal which closed at US$1,892 per tonne last Thursday, August 3, dipped further down to US$1,890 per tonne after night trading on Friday, August 4. According to Shanghai Metals Market forecast, LME aluminium should continue to struggle around the moving average and range at US$1,900-1,918 per tonne on Monday, August 7.
Reuters’ technical analysis suggests that LME aluminium may test a resistance at US$1,938 per tonne in the short term. A break above this level may lead to a gain to the next resistance at US$,948 per tonne.
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As on August 4, LME official cash buyer aluminium price (Bid Price) stands at US$1,888 per tonne, cash seller & settlement aluminium price (Offer price) is US$1,890 per tonne, 3M Bid Price is US$1,909 per tonne, 3M Offer Price is US$1,911 per tonne, Dec1 Bid Price is US$1,958 per tonne, and Dec1 Offer Price is US$1,963 per tonne. LME aluminium Opening Stock stands at 1331175 tonnes, total Live Warrants is 1042725 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrant is 288450 tonnes.
LME aluminium premiums remain unchanged across major regions globally. As on August 4, LME aluminium premium for the U.S. stands at US$165, LME Aluminium West-Europe Premium stands at US$80, LME Aluminium East Asia Premium remains unchanged at US$15, and LME Aluminium South-East Asia Premium is US$15 (per tonne).
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price at Shanghai Metal Exchange (SME) has edged higher to US$2,193 per tonne on Monday, August 7, from US$2,152 on Friday, August 4.
At Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most active aluminium future contract SHFE 1710 opened at RMB 14,690 per tonne on Friday, and then jumped to RMB 14,850 per tonne driven by the news of suspension of construction of coal-fired power plants in major China manufacturing hubs. Later, the aluminium prices fell back ending at RMB 14,765 per tonne. SMM predicts that SHFE 1710 aluminium will range RMB 14,730-14,900 per tonne on Monday, August 7.
Spot aluminium in east China market is expected to trade at discounts of RMB 160-120 per tonne over SHFE 1708 aluminium on Monday.
The market lacks any solid data or macroeconomic news today except the Sentix investor confidence index in August and Labour Market Conditions Index in the US in July. The eyes will be on the US dollar index movement as well, SMM said.
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