LME aluminium continued the uptrend with limited upward room; SHFE traded rangebound

The US dollar weakened as expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates was offset by a potential delay in a US-China trade deal. LME base metals rose across the board while the SHFE complex mostly fell.  LME aluminium increased 0.84%, and SHFE aluminium shed 0.29%.

Three-month LME aluminium closed higher for the third straight session, as loaded-up longs drove it up 0.84% to end at US$1,751per tonne. There will be limited upside movement on the backdrop of weak overseas demand for aluminium. Three months LME aluminium is likely to trade between US$1,720-1,760 per tonne. 

As on October 29, Tuesday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1737 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1737.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1741per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1742 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 1823 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 1828 per tonne.

The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 961650 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 788775 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 172875 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1737 per tonne.

SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

Benchmark aluminium price for SHFE (Shanghai Future Exchange) has dropped to US$ 2001 per tonne today, 30 October 2019.

The most traded SHFE 1912 contract slipped to the lowest in about two weeks at RMB13,740 per tonne in the morning, before it clawed back some losses to close the trading day 0.29% lower at RMB 13,785 per tonne. The SHFE December contract continued to trade rangebound with both longs and shorts cut their position. Today, it is seen trading between RMB13,750-13,850 per tonne. 

Signs of a slowing in consumption will be clearer when it comes to November, driving investors to short SHFE aluminium.