
The US dollar retained its recent gains overnight on upbeat domestic economic data. The euro fell to a seven-week low against the dollar on Monday as Italy. The Yuan weakened as Beijing's move to spur lending failed to ease concern about economic growth.
LME aluminium traded under pressure on Monday on news that Norsk Hydro obtained a key permit to restart its Alunorte refinery at half of its capacity. A firm US dollar also kept LME aluminium from climbing, on its strong SHFE counterpart. The contract closed Monday’s trading at US$ 2073.50 per tonne. Shanghai Metals Market expects it to trade at US$2,050-2,090 per tonne today.
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As on October 8, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2073 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2073.50 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2078 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2078.50 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2110 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2115 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped further to 963,350 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 609,625 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 353,725 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2069 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2095 per tonne today from US$ 2077 per tonne on October 8.
The SHFE 1811 contract settled at an intraday high of RMB 14,450 per tonne yesterday as shorts sped up their exit from the market in the afternoon. The contract ceased its decline for four consecutive trading days before the National Day holiday. The contract then extended its daytime gains overnight and tested the 60-day moving average as China decided to raise export tax rebates from November 1. SMM expects it to trade at RMB 14,500-14,650 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 50-20 per tonne.
China's central bank decision on a reserve requirement ratios cut buoyed market sentiment. Investors should continue to take guidance from the movement of the US dollar index and the price of LME aluminium for further market strategy.
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