
LME aluminium dropped from the previous closing of US$ 2172 per tonne and closed at US$ 2152 per tonne yesterday June 27. The US dollar index was up 0.4% at 94.66 on Tuesday. Most base metals rebounded overnight. LME aluminium surged over 2% recovering all the losses this week and rebounded to between the five- and 10-day moving averages overnight. Aluminium still faces strong pressure as the US dollar stays strong. Shanghai Metals Market expects LME aluminium to trade at US$2,170-2,195 per tonne today.

As on June 26, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2151 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2152 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2142 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2143 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2160 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2165 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock slightly dropped to 1122425 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 890525 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 231900 tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2145.10 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2127 per tonne on June 27 from US$ 2132 per tonne on June 26.
SHFE aluminium was dragged to a low of RMB 13,985 per tonne yesterday. The SHFE 1808 contract hit a high of RMB 14,190 per tonne overnight as Chinese yuan depreciated. It is likely to trade at RMB 14,100-14,300 per tonne today with spot discounts at RMB 60-20 per tonne.
The downward movement is within expectation as consumption weakens, inventory draw slows, and cost of production declines. The lingering US-China trade war and the slowing of shanty town redevelopment also expected to keep aluminium bearish in the medium term.
Key factors to watch today include China industrial profits in May, US durable goods orders, wholesale inventories, pending home sales in May as well as crude oil inventory data over the week ended June 22 from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
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