LME aluminium closed last week on this year's lowest, expected to recover slightly today; SHFE recovered losses

The US dollar followed Wall Street lower on Friday, falling from highs earlier in the day after third-quarter GDP data performed stronger than expected. Both LME and SHFE base metals ended in mixed performance on Friday night. Aluminium rose by 0.8%.

LME aluminium closed the day’s trading at US$ 1961 per tonne on Friday. It then recovered some losses overnight but potential resumption of Hydro’s alumina refinery and strengthened US dollar depressed LME aluminium to a low of US$1,975 per tonne during night trading.  It then rebounded to settle at US$2,006 per tonne. The contract is likely to trade at US$1,970-2,010 per tonne today.

As on October 26, Friday, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 1960 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1961 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1977 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1978 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2033 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2038 per tonne. 

The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1049175 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 729825 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 319350 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1986 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend 

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 2032 per tonne today from US$ 2026per tonne on October 25.

Macroeconomic pessimism and a strong US dollar index weighed on the SHFE 1812 contract on Friday last week, which extended its decline in the afternoon to a low of RMB 14,125 per tonne. While most base metals lost on Friday, the contract registered a relatively smaller drop of 0.35% and settled at RMB 14,170 per tonne. The contract rallied from a low of RMB14,100 per tonne at night as its LME counterpart rebounded. We see it trading at RMB14,050-14,200 per tonne today. Spot discounts are set at RMB 70-30 per tonne today.