LME aluminium closed higher at US$ 1879 per tonne on Friday ; SHFE rallied above the five-day moving average

The US dollar weakened against the euro and lost all gains from a robust report about US jobs. Base metals increased across the board as a result and LME aluminium increased 1.05%. SHFE aluminium and tin grew slightly. 

LME aluminium registered a gain with dollar’s loss and closed trading at US$ 1879 per tonne on Friday. Then it surged further to a high of US$1,881 per tonne overnight and tested resistance at the 10-day moving average following China’s RRRs cuts. LME aluminium is expected to hover around the 10-day moving average and trading at US$1,855-1,885 per tonne today.

As on January 4, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1878.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1879 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1861 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1862 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2015 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2020 per tonne.  

The LME aluminium opening stock increased slightly to 1278500 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 1036350 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 242150 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1845 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange increased to US$ 1946 per tonne today from US$ 1937 per tonne on January 4.

The SHFE 1903 contract inched up some 0.3% on Friday, ending at RMB 13,435 per tonne. The recent losses in the US dollar index grew confidence among longs and encouraged them to load up bets. The SHFE 1903 contract rallied above the five-day moving average and closed at RMB 13,520 per tonne during night trading. We expect it to trade at RMB 13,400-13,550 per tonne today. SHFE aluminium, however, is unlikely to rebound substantially in the short term given strong resistance at moving averages.