
The US dollar index nudged up overnight as investors searched for fresh clues before a widely expected interest rate hike by the US central bank this week. LME base metals, except for zinc, fell across the board on Monday.
Benchmark aluminium price on London Metal Exchange stayed almost flat and closed at US$2035 per tonne on Monday, September 24. According to Shanghai Metals Market Forecasts, LME aluminium would trade at a range of US$2,045-2,065 per tonne today.
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As on September 24, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stands at US$ 2034.50 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 2035 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 2065 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 2066 per tonne; Dec 19 bid price stands at US$ 2115 per tonne, and Dec 19 offer price stands at US$ 2120 per tonne.
The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1013050 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 707225 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 305825tonne.
LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 2086 per tonne.
SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend
The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange dropped to US$ 2121 per tonne today from US$ 2145 per tonne on September 21 Friday after yesterday’s holiday.
The SHFE 1811 contract rebounded to close at RMB 14,700 per tonne after it fell to RMB 14,640 per tonne last Friday. The contract stood above the five- and 10-day moving averages and recovered most of the losses it had made since last week. After a trading holiday yesterday, the contract opened higher today and is expected to trade rangebound at RMB 14,650-14,780 per tonne. Spot discounts are seen at RMB 50-10 per tonne.
The news that Rusal seeks to establish trading team in China will have an impact on the market. We see limited downward room for alumina prices considering tight bauxite supply in the Chinese market. On the global front, Hydro’s Alunorte is unlikely to resume full output within this year and this would keep the market tight and prices high. Chinese exporters would continue to sell alumina to the international market given the higher prices. About 800,000 tpy of capacities were shut down in China in July-September and restarting of capacities is going slow. On the demand side, some improvement is seen in downstream orders.
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