LME aluminium cash offer price rises 0.34% amid flooding concerns in China and falling inventories

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LME aluminium prices moved higher on August 4, with gains across cash, three-month and December 2027 contracts, while exchange inventories continued to decline. The combination of firmer prices and lower warehouse stocks reflected a market that remained supported by near-term supply concerns despite mixed demand signals from China.

The LME aluminium cash bid price rose to USD 3,270 per tonne on August 4 from USD 3,259 per tonne on August 3, while the cash offer price increased to USD 3,271 per tonne from USD 3,260 per tonne. Both prices were up 0.34 per cent.

The LME aluminium three-month bid price climbed to USD 3,236 per tonne from USD 3,210 per tonne, marking a 0.81 per cent increase. The three-month offer price also strengthened, rising to USD 3,236.5 per tonne from USD 3,212 per tonne, an increase of 0.76 per cent.

Further along the forward curve, the December 2027 bid price advanced to USD 3,148 per tonne from USD 3,133 per tonne, while the offer price increased to USD 3,153 per tonne from USD 3,138 per tonne. Both recorded a 0.48 per cent day-on-day gain.

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The LME aluminium three-month Asian Reference Price stood at USD 3,223 per tonne on August 4, while the LME alumina Platts price was USD 343.10 per tonne.

LME warehouse inventories also extended their decline. Opening aluminium stock fell to 262,650 tonnes from 264,400 tonnes, a decrease of 0.66 per cent. Live warrants slipped 0.24 per cent to 244,650 tonnes, while cancelled warrants declined 6.61 per cent to 16,250 tonnes.

Supply concerns outweigh softer demand outlook

The stronger price performance came as aluminium futures settled higher on growing concerns over near-term supply. Heavy rainfall and flooding in China's Sichuan province raised fears that smelter operations, hydropower generation and transportation could be disrupted, tightening aluminium availability.

Outside China, aluminium production fell 6.7 per cent year on year in July as several Middle Eastern smelters reduced operating rates, adding further support to market sentiment.

The market also responded to Alcoa's decision to lower its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000-300,000 tonnes to 9.5-9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia.

If we look at the demand side, China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly slipped into contraction during July, tempering consumption expectations. At the same time, China's primary aluminium production rose 4.7 per cent year on year to 3.98 million tonnes in June, while unwrought aluminium and product exports climbed to a record 711,000 tonnes, reflecting robust overseas shipments despite weaker imports.

Globally, primary aluminium production declined 1.5 per cent year on year in June, while aluminium stocks at major Japanese ports fell 7.8 per cent month on month, indicating steady regional demand even as the broader market continued to balance tightening supply risks against a softer demand outlook.

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