Japan is on a 'moderate recovery' path: Aluminium scrap imports dip while exports surge YoY

Aluminium scrap supply in major Japanese markets remains tight which seem to be supporting the bullish market conditions over the short term, reports the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) in its latest edition of Non-Ferrous Metals World Mirror. The country's total aluminium scrap exports surged 14 per cent year-on-year reaching 157,200 tonnes in the first eleven months of 2016. Exports of UBC scrap to South Korea, in the meantime, jumped 56 per cent from that in 2015 to total at 54,500 tonnes during the period under review. The figures are in stark contrast with those of imports. Aluminium scrap inflow in Japan from other countries has shrunk considerably over the last two years.

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In 2015, Japan purchased 67,092.23 tonnes of aluminium scrap from the global market, which declined 40.17 per cent year-on-year to total 40,135.08 tonnes in 2016. In 2017, till October, the country is estimated to import 33,308.84 tonnes of aluminium scrap, still 0.43 per cent down from the corresponding period previous year.

Value-wise too aluminium scrap imports by Japan has decreased signifiantly since 2015. In 2015, Japan's total aluminium scrap imports was valued at US$0.11 billion which declined 40 per cent to total at US$66.3 million in 2016. In 2017, till October, Japan is estimated to purchase aluminium scrap worth US$54.06 million, again down marginally by 1.6 per cent from the corresponding period previous year.

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The decline in import value of aluminium scrap in Japan during the last fiscal year can be attributed to the devaluation of the Japanese Yen against major currencies of the world economy.

However, the Yen has gained ground in the recent weeks. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) in its latest summary of opinions report sounded optimistic about the economy. The BoJ indicated that Japan is on a “moderate recovery” path- exports will further look up and industrial production will be high. Resilience in private consumption, on the other hand, will increase. There will be more stimuli from the government side and overseas demand for Japanese products will improve further.