Indonesia’s 2036 aluminium target signals a 43Mt bauxite demand challenge – here’s the gap and potential roadmap

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Indonesia’s aluminium value chain is expanding rapidly, but a critical imbalance is beginning to emerge beneath the country’s downstream ambitions. While alumina refineries and aluminium smelters are being developed at a fast pace, bauxite mine production has not increased with the same momentum, raising questions over whether Indonesia can secure enough raw material to sustain its long-term aluminium strategy.

The country is trying to build a fully integrated aluminium industry - from bauxite mining and alumina refining to aluminium smelting and downstream processing. Backed by export restrictions, foreign investment and large industrial projects, Indonesia is steadily shifting from being a raw mineral exporter to a producer of higher-value aluminium products.

However, the success of that strategy may ultimately depend on one basic factor: how quickly Indonesia can expand its bauxite production.

Indonesia has the reserves, but can production keep up?

Indonesia holds around 3 billion tonnes of bauxite reserves as of 2025, but mine production remains relatively limited compared with the scale of refining projects now under development.