India assesses potential $4.6 billion export hit from US 50% aluminium and steel tariff—how real is the threat?

As soon as the news broke about the US President Donald Trump’s decision to double aluminium and steel tariffs from 25 per cent to 50 per cent, effective from June 4, 2025, major producers and exporters of aluminium and steel worldwide began assessing the implications of the double-whammy, steep tariffs. India, being a country among the top 10 aluminium exporters to the United States, has assessed that its metal exports worth USD 4.56 billion would face headwinds. A report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) warned that Indian exports would become more expensive in the US market, potentially reducing their competitiveness and affecting overall trade volumes.

GTRI said "For India, the consequences are direct. In FY2025, India exported USD 4.56 billion worth of iron, steel, and aluminum products to the US.”

USD 4.56 billion export under threat - is it for real?

But is it so? Of the total metal exports worth USD 4.56 billion, aluminium and related products account for USD 860 million, iron and still stand for USD 587.5 million, and iron and steel articles account for USD 3.1 billion. Point to be noted here that the US tariffs are not applicable to iron. And as far as steel is concerned, India exports a limited volume of the ferrous metal. Indian Union Minister HD Kumaraswamy said on Monday a "minor impact" is expected because we are not exporting in a big way. Overall, the United States only imports approximately one-fourth of its steel requirement, and India contributes a very minimal volume.

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Aluminium export is one area where India is witnessing a considerable year-on-year growth. According to the International Trade Administration (ITA), the United States imported 54,798 tonnes of aluminium and aluminium products (excluding scrap), compared to 36,411 tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year, That marked a year-on-year hike of 51 per cent, following a slight 4 per cent increase Y-o-Y the earlier month from 35,163 tonnes. As per the ITA data, the United States’ aluminium imports from India grew Y-o-Y in Q1 2025 for the third year in a row, from 31,768 tonnes in Q1 2022.