By mid-century, aluminium is set to become one of the defining industrial commodities of the energy transition. Long-range modelling (like Marshall’s Equilibrium Model) points in the same direction, i.e., global aluminium demand could grow by around 80 per cent by 2050 compared with 2020. According to World Economic Forum reports, within that aggregate picture, one recent macro-model of primary aluminium fundamentals suggests that demand for primary metal alone could approach 110 million tonnes by 2050, even as a rising share of total use is met by recycled metal.
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Those projections are not abstract for India. The country is already the world’s second-largest producer of primary aluminium, accounting for roughly 6 per cent of global output in 2023, and has seen production more than double over the past two decades from about 1.7 million tonnes in 2003 to just over 4.1 million tonnes in 2023. However, the same period has also seen a sharp rise in imports of metal and scrap, suggesting that India is sliding into the 2050 supercycle, with both opportunities and vulnerabilities built into its aluminium system.
Where India really stands in 2025
On the production side, India’s primary aluminium output has been on a modest upward trend. Ministry of Mines data and industry summaries show primary production rising from around 3.6 million tonnes in FY2021 to roughly 4.2 million tonnes by FY2024. Ministry of Mines estimates place India’s share of world primary production at about 5.7 per cent in FY2024-25. On those numbers, India is a serious global producer, but not yet a dominant one.
Consumption tells a different story. An earlier National Aluminium Company (NALCO) investor disclosures summarising sector data suggest India’s aluminium consumption in 2023-2024 was around 4.9 million tonnes, with demand projected to reach about 8.3 million tonnes by 2030, implying a CAGR of 8 per cent per annum. Other market assessments point to a similar trajectory, with some placing expected demand near 9-10 million tonnes by the early 2030s.
Over the past 14 years, the Aluminium Association of India (AAI) has estimated that domestic aluminium consumption has increased by about 160 per cent, while imports of aluminium products have risen by around 250 per cent and scrap imports by roughly 285 per cent.
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