IAI finds world primary aluminium output at 64.5 Mt during Jan-Nov’23; AL Circle projects 70.01 Mt by year-end

The latest data from the International Aluminium Institute indicates a 2.21 per cent rise in the world’s year-to-date primary aluminium production to 64.516 million tonnes at the end of November 2023. During the same period last year, the world’s primary aluminium output was at 63.119 million tonnes.

According to AL Circle’s prediction for 2023, the world’s primary aluminium output is estimated to stand at 70.01 million tonnes, meaning the world’s production will need to reach 5.494 million tonnes in December to meet the expected figure.

Considering the average monthly production, the global primary aluminium output will most likely match AL Circle’s estimation at the end of 2023 unless any significant decline occurs in December’s output. According to IAI data, primary aluminium production in November 2023 fell month-on-month by 3.7 per cent to 5.893 million tonnes versus 6.12 million tonnes in October 2023. However, on an annual basis, the November output grew by 2.7 per cent from 5.737 million tonnes.

China, the world’s largest primary aluminium producer, churned out 3.5 million tonnes in November 2023. That also stood 4.1 per cent down month-on-month from 3.65 million tonnes, in line with the global output trend. On a year-on-year calculation, China’s primary aluminium production in Nov’23 registered a rise of 3 per cent from 3.39 million tonnes.

In eleven months of the year, China produced 38.15 million tonnes of primary aluminium, which reflected an increase of 3.25 per cent from 36.95 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year.

The Gulf Cooperation Council, which aspires to be one of the world’s top 10 aluminium producers, generated 506,000 tonnes of primary aluminium in November 2023. On a month-on-month basis, the output was 2.3 per cent down, while on a year-on-year calculation, the production edged an increase of 1.2 per cent.

Production cuts at aluminium smelters in Yunnan province were a major reason behind China’s primary aluminium output in November, affecting the world’s production as the largest producer of the globe.

IAI had previously estimated that the world’s aluminium sector would need to produce an additional 33.3 million tonnes to meet demand growth in all industrial sectors. If so, global production must reach 119.5 million tonnes by the end of 2040 versus 86.2 million tonnes in 2020.