Guinea strengthened its dominance in the global bauxite market in 2025, driven by record shipments to China. Exports to China reached 127.11 million tonnes in the first 10 months of the year, up 38.47 per cent year-on-year, according to China’s General Administration of Customs. The shipments accounted for 74 per cent of china bauxite imports during the period.
These increased inflows of Guinean bauxite to Chinese alumina refineries have led to an oversupply of the ore and thus the depression of alumina prices. According to Fastmarkets analysis, this trend is expected to continue into the near term, putting pressure on refineries to control raw material costs.
Explore- Most accurate data to drive business decisions with 50+ reports across the value chain
“In the absence of significant improvements in demand, alumina prices will become increasingly reliant on fluctuations in bauxite costs,” an alumina consumer told Fastmarkets.
In order to improve cost transparency and controllability, a bauxite and alumina trader in Shanghai said it would prefer to keep ore costs and freight costs apart. “We would like to charter vessels ourselves to better manage the freight risk and control costs,” the trader said.
Read More: Rio Tinto invites EOIs work package for the Kangwinan bauxite mine
The country’s first state-owned mining company, Nimba Development Co (NDC), shipped 600,000 tonnes by early December. By 2026, it aims to scale output to 10 million tonnes.
“We sell bauxite only on a free on board (FOB) basis,” NDC chief executive officer Patrice L’Huillier told Fastmarkets, adding, “I’m very bullish on the demand for bauxite next year.”
In an exclusive interview with AL Circle, Patrice L’HUILLIER said: “ 100% of our bauxite production would be exported. We are targeting China and India, which are the major bauxite consumers for alumina production.”
To address potential demand and respond to the increase in bauxite shipments from Guinea, Fastmarkets launched an FOB Guinea bauxite price on December 19, with the first estimate at USD 44-46 per dry metric tonne (dmt).
Don't miss out- Buyers are looking for your products on our B2B platform
Responses
