Japan’s aluminium market may be heading into a much firmer pricing environment next year, with Marubeni Corp signalling that buyers could be paying USD 85 to USD 203 per tonne in premiums through 2026. The trading company expects international price strength to divert metal away from Asia, tightening availability for Japanese importers.
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Although Japan relies heavily on overseas aluminium and typically negotiates quarterly surcharges above the London Metal Exchange cash price, those premiums have slipped to USD 86 per tonne in the current quarter, far below USD 228 agreed at the start of the year. That downward stretch may not last long.
Talks for the January to March 2026 delivery window, which began earlier this month, show a stark shift in tone. Sources familiar with the discussions say that suppliers from outside Japan are demanding USD190 to USD203 per tonne, which would mark increases of 121 per cent to 136 per cent from today’s level.
Marubeni has mapped out its expectations for next year, projecting:
Western premiums drive market anxiety
According to Eisuke Akasaka, who oversees light metals at Marubeni, premiums in both the U.S. and Europe have been climbing rapidly on the back of supply worries and tariff-driven anxieties. The ripple effect has already pushed Japanese spot premiums close to USD 140, he said.
Akasaka linked the surge abroad to several disruptions: a smelter outage in Iceland, the potential mothballing of South32’s Mozambique operation, and heavy early buying ahead of the EU’s forthcoming carbon tax under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Added to that, he noted, US import tariffs have sent American premiums sharply higher.
Despite the current pressure, Akasaka anticipates that European premiums may cool during the second half of 2026 as demand remains weak. If that easing materialises, he expects Japanese premiums to drift slightly lower as well.
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