
Fitch Ratings has amended the Outlook on Mytilineos S.A.'s long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDR and senior unsecured ratings at 'BB'.

The amendment of the Outlook exhibits the weak macro environment with prolonged low commodity prices, material pressure on aluminium consuming industries, the expected underperformance of engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) business and uncertainties around the COVID-19 situation/shape of the recovery.
The current three-month LME aluminium price is trading short of USD1,600/t, a reduction of around 12% from the 2019 average price. The company has revised its aluminium price assumptions down for the second time this year and it expects 2020 and 2021 LME prices to average USD1,560/t and USD1,600/t, respectively.
Fitch expects aluminium end-user demand, which already experienced difficulties in 2019, to deteriorate due to considerably lower economic activity amid COVID-19 lockdown measures.
Fitch views this increase in leverage as temporary, driven by MYTIL's sizeable CAPEX of EUR300 million over the next three years for the construction of the new power plant, which will provide material EBITDA contribution and stability of cash flows once it begins operations in 2022. Fitch expects net leverage to trend comfortably below 3.0x in 2022 after the bulk of the new power plant CAPEX. The Negative Outlook also reflects significantly less headroom to proceed with new organic investment or bolt-on acquisitions.
Mytilineos is well-placed to cope with the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, with comfortable liquidity and no material debt maturities before 2024. It is also believed that solid power & gas performance will provide the group with sustainable cash flows over the rating horizon and help cushion weaker metallurgy and EPC results; a significant advantage of the company's business profile.
The affirmation is underpinned by Mytilineos diversified business profile, synergistic business model, vertically integrated and low unit-cost metallurgy operations as well as strong and growing market position in the domestic electricity market.
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