AL Circle analysis: Germany’s aluminium trade surplus, Novelis’ US expansion, Asia’s EV demand & India’s underutilised downstream capacity
Aluminium’s next growth phase is increasingly being shaped by downstream processing, supply-chain resilience and demand from specialised applications. Germany continues to generate a substantial trade surplus in flat-rolled products despite a shrinking primary aluminium base, while North America is investing in recycling and rolling. Across Asia, new manufacturing capabilities and growing demand from electric vehicles, railways and batteries are creating further opportunities. However, declining exports, underutilised capacity and uneven profitability show that investment alone does not guarantee success. For industry leaders, the challenge is to identify where demand is shifting, develop products that meet customer requirements and ensure that new investments translate into sustainable...
AL Circle Analysis: From Guinea to Gulf, how bauxite, tariffs and logistics redraw aluminium map
Aluminium markets in late 2026 are being shaped by more than the headline LME aluminium price. Bauxite security, alumina availability, geopolitical disruptions, tariff negotiations, logistics diversification and regional premiums are increasingly determining where metal moves and what buyers pay. From RUSAL reassessing Caribbean assets and Vedanta securing Odisha bauxite to Brazil extending mine life and EGA rebuilding its Guinea supply chain, producers are strengthening control over critical raw materials. At the same time, the US remains heavily dependent on imported bauxite and alumina, while Europe and Asia are experiencing sharply different premium dynamics. These developments point to a market where physical availability is becoming a regional factor even as aluminium itself remains...
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Overview of the United States’ Q1 2024 aluminium imports: Strong trade agreement with Canada directing the trend
According to the United States Geological Survey, the United States imported 1.36 million tonnes of aluminium (including scrap) through the first quarter of 2024 ended March 31. That reflected an annual increase of 6.25 per cent from 1.28 million tonnes. In the individual month of 2024, the United States imported 448,000 tonnes, 492,000 tonnes, and 418,000 tonnes, indicating a fluctuating trend M-o-M. After a rise in February by 9.82 per cent, the United States’ aluminium imports in March decreased by 15 per cent. The top sources of imports in Q1 2024 included Canada (874,000 tonnes), the United Arab Emirates (69,600 tonnes), Mexico (63,900 tonnes), China (approximately 42,200 tonnes), and Argentina (41,100 tonnes). However, if compared to the previous year, imports from almost all the...
“Thermika infra-red ovens have significantly impacted energy savings and die performance in the aluminium extrusion industry,” Charbel Saliba, Director, Thermika Systems Inc.
Charbel Saliba, with a background in economics, ventured into entrepreneurial endeavours shortly after completing his university studies. He successfully built and sold several businesses independently before his career took a significant turn. This pivotal moment came when his father-in-law introduced him to the industrial heating industry. He gained extensive knowledge about the field and business operations in general from his father-in-law's mentoring and guidance. This support proved invaluable as Charbel navigated this new industry. Reflecting on these experiences, Charbel expresses deep gratitude, recognising their crucial role in shaping his professional journey. These formative experiences have led to his current success and the accomplished professional he is today. AL Circle:...
Africa & Asia’s alumina output rebounds in May 2024 exceeding 1 Mt; however, falls short of early-year level
Alumina production in Africa & Asia (ex-China) showcased an encouraging month-on-month rebound during May 2024, following a plunge in the previous month. The output surpassed the 1 million tonnes level but did not match the production volume in January, February, and March. According to the International Aluminium Institute, Africa & Asia’s alumina output in May recorded a significant growth of 12 per cent over a month, reaching 1.117 million tonnes. Annually, the production increased by 3.43 per cent from 1.080 million tonnes. However, despite the positive trend, May production lagged behind January, February, and March output by about 10 per cent, 5 per cent, and 8 per cent, respectively. From January to May 2024, Africa & Asia (ex-China) produced 5.727 million tonnes of alumina, up...
World alumina production exceeds 12 Mt level in May amid dampened output in Oceania
The world's alumina production once again crossed the 12 million tonnes level in May 2024 (31 calendar days), close to the output in March 2024, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.43 per cent. During the same period last year, the world's alumina output was also above 12 million tonnes but slightly less than this year, showing a marginal difference of 0.19 per cent. However, it is to be noted here that although the output in May 2024 nearly matches the production of last year but the overall trend of this year through the five months demonstrated much positive than in the previous year. Thus, the year-to-date world's alumina production of 2024 totalled 58.974 million tonnes, up by 2.52 per cent from 57.522 million tonnes in the earlier year, found the International Aluminium...
Japanese aluminium buyers conclude Q3 premium negotiations with 8% reduction
According to the latest report, Japanese aluminium buyers have agreed to pay an 8 per cent lower premium for primary aluminium shipments for Q3 2024, ending September 30, than the previous quarter. The news came after five sources directly involved in quarterly pricing talks reported. The last offer by global producers for Q3 was $185 to $190 per tonne, compared to which the current premium is 36-37 per cent lower, standing at $118 to $119 per tonne. As opposed to the previous quarter's premium of $128 per tonne, the third-quarter premium agreed upon is 7.8-7 per cent less, following two quarters of rising premiums. In Q2 2024, Japan's primary aluminium shipment premium was 35 per cent higher sequentially, while that in Q1 was 27 per cent more. "We have settled the deals at $118 and $119...
North America’s aluminium demand witnesses a 4.3% annual growth aligned with production surge
Aluminium demand in North America, stemming from the automotive, aerospace, construction, and packaging industries, is undergoing an upward movement, fuelled by a concerted move towards sustainability by manufacturers. The aluminium industry in North America is categorised by product type and end-user sectors. Aluminium castings, primarily serving the transportation sector, lead in demand among all product types, followed by flat-rolled products supporting the packaging industry. According to AL Circle’s report “ Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2024 ,” North America accounted for approximately 21.5 per cent of the global aluminium flat-rolled product use and 8.25 per cent of extrusion use in 2023. Demand analysis In the first quarter of 2024, North America, including the United States...
China’s demand for Guinea bauxite fuels Capesize market surge
Capesize rates have recently surged past the $30,000 a day mark, largely driven by record-breaking bauxite shipments from West Africa to China. Bauxite, the primary source of aluminium, is a significant minor bulk commodity typically transported on Capesize vessels. According to the US Geological Survey, Guinea holds the largest bauxite reserves in the world. In the second quarter of this year, Greek broker Intermodal reported an "unprecedented surge" in bauxite exports from Guinea, reaching a new record, with the majority of these exports destined for China. China, a key player in the global market, has set a record in primary aluminium production. The significant growth in the first five months of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023, has led to a surge in demand for bauxite and...
Upward trajectory of China’s primary aluminium production is leaving strain on the alumina market
China achieved a record-high production of primary aluminium, reaching 3.65 million tonnes in May 2024, comparable to output levels seen in August and September of the previous year. This surge is bolstered by the restarting of smelters in Yunnan after a prolonged shutdown, promising an annual output of 43 million tonnes. However, this upward trajectory has significantly affected the alumina market, the key raw material for aluminium production, resulting in constrained supply and fluctuating ore prices. Alumina price movement Throughout May 2024, China's average alumina price surged, recording a growth rate of 13.24 per cent. According to the Shanghai Metals Market, the domestic alumina price increased over a month from RMB 3,451 per tonne to RMB 3,908 per tonne, reaching its highest...
AI-driven productivity gains may vary widely across European sectors
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is poised to make significant inroads across various European sectors, with smaller industries standing to benefit the most in the near term. While larger sectors may still need to be ready to implement AI fully, and some may never reach that point, the potential for productivity gains remains substantial, according to ING Think. ING suggests that the most immediate advantages will be seen in smaller sectors, where AI can be more easily integrated, and its impact is felt more quickly. These industries are likely to experience notable improvements in efficiency and innovation. On the other hand, larger sectors face more significant challenges in adopting AI technologies. The complexity and scale of these industries can hinder swift implementation, leading to...
Innovative Korean research enhances aluminium frames for bifacial solar modules
Korean scientists have developed a groundbreaking deep-learning alternative model to optimise aluminium frames in glass-glass bifacial photovoltaic panels (PVs). Addressing the escalating challenges posed by the growing size and weight of PV modules, the researchers highlighted a critical issue: the heightened susceptibility of aluminium frames to deflection. Deflection refers to the lateral deformation experienced by a structural element under load, a concern amplified by the increasing dimensions of modern PV panels. Aluminium frames play a crucial role in providing structural support to solar panels. They ensure they maintain their shape and integrity by preventing bending, warping, or sagging caused by their weight or external factors. The innovative deep-learning hybrid model...
Indonesia's critical minerals: A wealth beyond measure, but sustainability awaits
Indonesia, with its rich deposits of critical minerals, stands poised at the forefront of the global supply chain, particularly in the burgeoning electric vehicle (EV) market. The 2024 US Geological Survey report underscores Indonesia's dominance, placing it first worldwide in nickel reserves, which are crucial for EV batteries. Additionally, Indonesia ranks among the world's top tin producers, an essential component in smartphone manufacturing. Beyond nickel and tin, Indonesia's mineral wealth includes significant deposits of cobalt, bauxite, and copper. Indonesia has trade restrictions on bauxite and nickel. In 2020, the nation prohibited the export of nickel, and in 2023, it banned the export of bauxite . Indonesia has previously planned to impose a ban on exports of copper concentrate...
Africa’s primary aluminium production records a 6% M-o-M growth in May 2024 but continues the annual downtrend
In addition to China and the Gulf Cooperation Council, the substantial increase in Africa’s primary aluminium production also bolstered the world’s output significantly in May 2024. According to the International Aluminium Institute’s survey, Africa’s primary aluminium production in May increased by 5.74 per cent month-on-month, exceeding January and March’s output levels. But in contrast, the output on an annual basis edged a decrease of about 5.15 per cent. According to IAI, Africa’s primary aluminium production in May 2024 stood at 129,000 tonnes, compared to 122,000 tonnes in April 2024 and 136,000 tonnes in May 2023. With about a 6 per cent monthly hike, Africa’s primary aluminium production in May emerged as the highest output in the past five months of this year. The daily...
LME explores Hong Kong warehouse licensing to enhance China market services
The London Metal Exchange is considering licensing a warehouse in Hong Kong to enhance its services for clients in China, the world's largest metals market. At the metal exchange's annual Asia seminar in Hong Kong on June 27, Bonnie Chan, the Chief Executive Officer of Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. (which owns the LME), announced the commissioning of a comprehensive third-party study. This study will thoroughly assess the feasibility of establishing a warehouse in Hong Kong, ensuring that all potential factors are considered in the decision-making process. Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. (HKEX) has enhanced the holding company, providing LME and LME Clear ownership, underscoring the Group's strategic commitment to further developing its commodities business. Since Hong Kong...
The UK’s aluminium packaging recycling rate hit an impressive 68% in 2023: Tom Giddings, CEO, Alupro
AL Circle: Can you briefly overview Alupro's mission and objectives. How does Alupro contribute to promoting aluminium recycling in the UK? Tom Giddings: Our key objective is to act as the voice of the aluminium packaging value chain to ensure the views of private organisations are heard by the government as we work to increase recycling rates, provide valuable insights, and improve the rules and infrastructure around recycling to ensure aluminium packaging can fulfil its gold-standard potential for the circular economy. As part of our work, we lobby the government on behalf of our members, encouraging positive changes to legislation and the wider industry in the best interests of aluminium packaging. Alongside this, we also take part in steering groups presenting the thoughts and...
Inner Mongolia Mengtai Group acquires Alu Menziken, NNDKP among key advisors
Nestor Nestor Diculescu Kingston Petersen (NNDKP) played a pivotal role in the recent acquisition of Alu Menziken Group by Inner Mongolia Mengtai Group Co., Ltd. The Chinese conglomerate purchased Alu Menziken Group from Montana Aerospace AG. NNDKP provided expert legal counsel within the Romanian jurisdiction, ensuring compliance and smooth transaction processes. The acquisition was a collaborative effort coordinated by the German law firm HEUKING, which served as the lead counsel. HEUKING effectively managed local counsel across Switzerland, Austria, and Romania to facilitate this cross-border transaction. Alu Menziken is a well-established manufacturer of lightweight aluminium components, offering solutions for e-battery systems, structural elements, high-quality aluminium profiles ,...
May 2024: World primary aluminium production exceeds 6 million tonnes, driven by China's 2-year high output
In May 2024, the world's primary aluminium production experienced a month-on-month increase of 3.86 per cent to repossess the 6 million tonnes level. This monthly growth in May followed a decline in April by 3 per cent from 6.089 million tonnes to 5.906 million tonnes. According to the latest data revealed by the International Aluminium Institute, the global primary aluminium production in May amounted to 6.134 million tonnes, the highest in the past five months and up 3.44 per cent from 5.93 million tonnes a year ago. The daily average production in May was 197,900 tonnes, an increase of 0.51 per cent from 196,900 tonnes in April and up by 3.45 per cent from 191,300 tonnes in May 2023. From January to May 2024, the world's primary aluminium production totalled 29.901 million tonnes,...
China advances towards 2030 carbon emissions goal, cutting 4.3% thermal power consumption in May 2024
China's progressive transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, harnessed from sunlight and water for power generation, is instilling a sense of optimism. This shift, by the world's largest polluter, is a promising step towards achieving net-zero emissions, offering a beacon of hope for the global environment. Encouragingly, the usage of thermal power, which accounts for a lion's share of China's carbon footprint, was reduced by 4.3 per cent in May from the previous year, the most significant drop since 2022. Instead, thermal power was largely replaced by hydroelectricity. In May, hydropower generation in China surged 39 per cent after heavy rains fed a recovery in Southwest China's Yunnan province, one of the world's largest hydropower-producing regions. Output from large solar...
Implementing policy changes at both national and international levels can significantly reduce the environmental impacts of bauxite mining: Matthew Groch, Mighty Earth
Matthew Groch is the Senior Director of Decarbonisation at Mighty Earth, overseeing the organisation’s decarbonisation campaign. In his role, he focuses on transforming the heavy industry, including steel and aluminium, towards more sustainable practices across its supply chains. Matthew also ensures that the leading automakers in the electric vehicle transition are shifting their material supply chains to low-carbon and deforestation-free sources. Before joining Mighty Earth, Matthew Groch was Deputy Director at Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, working on critical issues such as the NAFTA renegotiation and global COVID-19 vaccine access. Matthew holds a B.A. in political science from Drew University, graduating Summa Cum Laude in 2008. AL Circle: Can you provide an overview of Mighty...
