Fall in US dollar lifted LME and SHFE aluminium overnight; SHFE to get support from positive market fundamentals

The US dollar index fell on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook on the global economy. LME base metals traded mixed on Tuesday. LME aluminium rose 0.3% and SHFE aluminium advanced some 0.3%.

Three-month LME aluminium fluctuated to end 0.3% higher at US$1,879 per tonne on Tuesday, with its trading level barely changed from the previous day. LME aluminium gained at night after a fall in dollar. However, the contract is expected to perform weakly today, with most transactions at US$1,850-1,890 per tonne.

As on April 9, LME aluminium cash (bid) price stood at US$ 1850 per tonne, LME official settlement price stands at US$ 1851 per tonne; 3-months bid price stands at US$ 1876 per tonne, 3-months offer price is US$ 1876.50 per tonne; Dec 20 bid price stands at US$ 2005 per tonne, and Dec 20 offer price stands at US$ 2010 per tonne. 

The LME aluminium opening stock dropped to 1094600 tonnes. Live Warrants totalled at 728825 tonnes, and Cancelled Warrants were 365775 tonnes.

LME aluminium 3-months Asian Reference Price is hovering at US$ 1876 per tonne.

SME and SHFE Aluminium Price Trend

The benchmark aluminium price on Shanghai Metal Exchange stayed almost flat for one week and increased from US$2054 per tonne on April 9 to US$ 2060 per tonne today.

Lower domestic inventories of primary aluminium supported aluminium prices while supplies grew and costs of raw materials extended their drops. The most-liquid SHFE May contract stopped its downturn at a low of RMB 13,760 per tonne, as shorts took profits and left. It ended at RMB13,810 per tonne. Longs in Shanghai lifted the most active SHFE May contract to a seven-day high of RMB 13,880 per tonne overnight, near the year-high of RMB 13,900 per tonne on April 1. As some longs took profits, it pared some gains to end at RMB 13,820 per tonne, posting a five-day winning streak. Declining inventories and improving consumption will continue to offer support, with pressure from previous highs. SHFE aluminium is expected to trade at RMB 13,780-13,880 per tonne today with spot premiums of up to RMB 20 per tonne.