The first five months of 2025 have brought a reshaping of the European Union’s export map for aluminium pipes and tubes (HS 7608). What had looked like a heavily US-driven trade in early 2024 has since shifted into a more balanced pattern, with the United States sharply pulling back, while Norway and Türkiye emerged as surprising growth engines. The numbers point to an EU industry that is adjusting to external shocks, diversifying its portfolio, and finding new anchors in regional and energy-linked markets.
_0_0.jpg)
Image for representational purposes only
Aluminium pipes and tubes, the good ideal for use where strength and corrosion resistance are required without additional weight, such as on aircraft wings or bike frames, have found their way into businesses across the globe. The manufacturing facilities in European Union countries, having realised the clue, have taken the opportunity to become a key supplier of the downstream (semi-fabricated/semi-finished) product.
A year of contrasts: 2025 vs 2024
US: Between January and May 2024, the EU shipped 2,239 tonnes of aluminium pipes and tubes to the United States, comfortably the largest export destination. By the same period in 2025, that volume had fallen near 25 per cent to 1,674 tonnes.
The decline is not a seasonal or a cyclical blip. Since the Trump government commenced imposing protective measures and the push for near-shoring rose, the trade sources began to alter places. Halfway through the calendar year, an uptick in imports from Asian suppliers surfaced, where costs are lower. For EU producers, the US thrift rang alarms, as the largest and most lucrative export market is no longer a guaranteed buyer.
Norway: Contrast that with Norway. In the period of January to May of 2024, Norway accounted for only 461 tonnes, ranking seventh. A year later, its imports soared to 1,619 tonnes, making it the EU’s second-largest buyer. This 250 per cent surge reflects the deepening role of aluminium in Norway’s energy and transport sectors. With the Nordic state pushing aggressively on offshore wind, green shipping, and EV infrastructure, demand for aluminium tubes and pipes, that are critical in power systems and structural applications, has grown in lockstep. Crucially, as a member of the EEA (European Economic Area), Norway remains a frictionless trade partner, giving EU suppliers a natural competitive edge.
Turkey: This nation has also reinforced its position. Imports rose from 1,446 tonnes in January to May 2024 to 1,495 tonnes in the same period of 2025. At nearly 1,500 tonnes, Türkiye now accounts for a significant slice of EU external trade, reflecting its booming construction and manufacturing sectors.
If Ankara continues to push for infrastructure upgrades and industrial growth, EU tubes will continue to find an alternative ready market, even as Türkiye itself grows as an aluminium extrusions exporter.
UK and Switzerland: The United Kingdom and Switzerland remained consistent destinations, absorbing 1,185 tonnes and 976 tonnes respectively in Jan–May 2024, and 1,256 tonnes and 1,062 tonnes in the same window of 2025. Both markets recorded modest growth, reinforcing the idea that the EU’s closest neighbours continue to provide dependable outlets for semi-fabricated products. For EU suppliers, this stability is important: while volumes may not surge, they offer a hedge against volatility in more distant markets.
Also read: Between revolving funds & Russian oil: India’s energy security remains hostage to geopolitical churn
Winners and losers outside Europe
Mexico: The trajectory has been negative. Imports fell from 761 tonnes in the first five months of 2024 to 587 tonnes in 2025, which is a sharp 22 per cent contraction. Part of this can be linked to Mexico’s expanding trade ties with the United States under the USMCA, with more sourcing taking place regionally rather than through transatlantic routes. Brazil also trimmed back, slipping from 433 tonnes to 387 tonnes year-on-year.
Serbia: At the same time, Serbia entered the top-nine list in 2025, replacing China. Serbia imported a small quantity of 543 tonnes between January and May 2025. But it still reflected a growing appetite in the Western Balkans for EU-origin industrial materials.
China: China, by contrast, dropped out of the ranking after importing 454 tonnes in early 2024. The Y-o-Y decline is unsurprising as China has, as ever, turned out to be self-sufficient in aluminium products, with state-backed capacity expansions eroding demand for EU-made tubes and pipes.
Morocco: It held steady, at 594 tonnes in 2024 and 525 tonnes in 2025, signalling stable but not spectacular growth. Its role as a gateway to North Africa makes it a strategic market, but its volumes remain relatively modest compared to Europe’s core buyers.
Pricing and market implications
Although the raw data tracks volumes, value terms suggest another layer of complexity. EU-origin tubes and pipes are often positioned at the premium end of the market, with stricter technical standards and certifications. With average export prices from the EU hovering higher than those from Asia (In 2024, the average export price from the EU for aluminium tubes and pipes stood at approximately USD 8,169 per tonne), a market like the US, increasingly cost-sensitive, becomes vulnerable to substitution. That may partly explain why US buyers have scaled back, while neighbouring markets such as Norway and Switzerland, which prioritise technical reliability and regulatory alignment, have increased purchases.
If the average EU export price is benchmarked at around USD 4,000-4,500 per tonne for semi-fabricated aluminium, the US contraction alone represents a revenue loss of roughly USD 2.3-2.5 million in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
How do geopolitical undercurrents play the field?
Apart from the price and demand cycles, geopolitics dominates the trade scenario. The United States’ renewed emphasis on ‘buy American’ policies, added to the tariff uncertainties, is discouraging reliance on EU imports. Türkiye’s rise as a buyer is linked to its balancing act between EU integration and Asian supply chains, while Norway’s surge aligns with Europe’s energy transition agenda, in which aluminium plays a central role.
Serbia’s new presence on the map could be read in the context of EU accession dialogues and infrastructure financing, which often carry EU procurement conditions. Meanwhile, China’s exit from the top list echoes its domestic overcapacity along with the trade frictions and standards divergence that make EU exports less competitive in Asia.
Also read: LME aluminium inventory's truth: Numbers up, but metal missing!
Cumulative numbers through the first five months
Taken together, the EU’s aluminium tube and pipe exports between January and May 2025 totalled around 8,900 tonnes across its top nine markets, compared to 8,100 tonnes in 2024. That’s an overall growth of about 10 per cent year-on-year, but with very different winners and losers. The US cut back, Mexico and Brazil receded, while Norway, Switzerland, Türkiye, and Serbia expanded.
For EU producers, the takeaway is twofold. Where, on the one hand, the trade base is becoming more balanced, with less dependence on a single large buyer. On the other hand, the loss of premium US volumes carries financial consequences, given higher average margins in that market.
The outlook now hinges on whether Norway and Turkey’s surge can be sustained, and whether the US slide is temporary or a result of deeper structural decoupling.
Also watch: Aluminium and Other Base Metals: Understanding Risk Management and Hedging by Jorge Eduardo Dyszel
Responses
